Tropical cyclone (TC) is the one of the most devastating weather systems which causes enormous loss of life and property in the coastal regions of North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries. TC modelling can help decision-makers and inhabitants in shoreline zones to take necessary planning and actions in advance. To model TC activity, it is essential to know the factors that effect TC activities. The formation of tropical cyclones in the NIO basin is significantly modulated by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Equivalent Potential Temperature (EPT). In this paper, a kernel density estimation approach (KDE) has been developed and evaluated to determine the extent of this modulation for the period 1979–2016. The distribution of genesis was defined by the KDE approach and validated by both classical and standard plug-in estimators. Results suggest a strong correlation of TC genesis densities with CAPE in the month of October–November (post-monsoon season) followed by the month of April–May (pre-monsoon season). Findings indicate the potential for predicting TC activities in the NIO well before the TC season.

中文翻译：

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北印度洋热带气旋形成的核密度估计方法及其与对流可用势能和等效位温的关联

热带气旋 (TC) 是最具破坏性的天气系统之一，它在北印度洋 (NIO) 边缘国家的沿海地区造成巨大的生命和财产损失。TC 建模可以帮助海岸线区域的决策者和居民提前采取必要的规划和行动。要模拟 TC 活动，必须了解影响 TC 活动的因素。NIO 盆地热带气旋的形成受到对流可用位能 (CAPE) 和等效位温 (EPT) 的显着调节。在本文中，开发并评估了一种核密度估计方法 (KDE)，以确定 1979-2016 年期间这种调制的程度。Genesis 的分布由 KDE 方法定义，并由经典和标准插件估计器验证。结果表明，10 月至 11 月（季风后季节）其次是 4 月至 5 月（季风前季节），TC 发生密度与 CAPE 之间存在很强的相关性。研究结果表明在 TC 季节之前预测 NIO 中的 TC 活动的潜力。