Changing predator communities have been implicated in reduced survival of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns. Few studies, however, have used field‐based age‐specific estimates for survival and fecundity to assess the relative importance of low fawn survival on population growth and harvest potential. We studied white‐tailed deer population dynamics on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge (TRNWR) in Louisiana, USA, where the predator community included bobcats (Lynx rufus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and a restored population of Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus). During 2013–2015, we radio‐collared and monitored 70 adult (≥2.5 yrs) and 21 yearling (1.5‐yr‐old) female deer. Annual survival averaged 0.815 (95% CI = 0.734–0.904) for adults and 0.857 (95% CI = 0.720–1.00) for yearlings. We combined these estimates with concurrently collected fawn survival estimates (0.27; 95% CI = 0.185–0.398) to model population trajectories and elasticities. We used estimates of nonhunting survival (annual survival estimated excluding harvest mortality) to project population growth (λ) relative to 4 levels of harvest (0, 10%, 20%, 30%). Finally, we investigated effects of reduced fawn survival on population growth under current management and with elimination of female harvest. Despite substantial fawn predation, the deer population on TRNWR was increasing (λ = 1.06) and could sustain additional female harvest; however, the population was expected to decline at 20% (λ = 0.98) and 30% (λ = 0.94) female harvest. With no female harvest, the population was projected to increase with observed (λ = 1.15) and reduced fawn survival (λ = 1.02), but the population could not sustain current female harvest (10%) if fawn survival declined (λ = 0.90). For all scenarios, adult female survival was the most elastic parameter. Given the importance of adult female survival, the relative predictability in response of adult survival to harvest management, and the difficulty in altering fawn survival, reducing female harvest is likely the most efficient approach to compensate for low fawn survival. On highly productive sites such as ours, reduction, but not necessarily elimination, of harvest can mitigate effects of low fawn survival on population growth. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.

中文翻译：

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路易斯安那黑熊恢复后白尾鹿种群动态

捕食者群落的变化与白尾鹿（Odocoileus virginianus）小鹿的存活率降低有关。但是，很少有研究使用基于年龄的特定年龄段的存活率和繁殖力评估来评估小鹿存活率对种群增长和收获潜力的相对重要性。我们在美国路易斯安那州的Tensas河国家野生动物保护区（TRNWR）上研究了白尾鹿种群动态，那里的捕食者社区包括山猫（山猫（ruxs rufus）），土狼（Canis latrans）和恢复的路易斯安那州黑熊（Ursus americanus）黄体）。在2013–2015年期间，我们对70头成年（≥2.5岁）和21岁（1.5岁）雌鹿进行了无线电领圈和监测。一岁成年人的平均年生存率为0.815（95％CI = 0.734–0.904），一岁鸽的平均年生存率为0.857（95％CI = 0.720–1.00）。我们将这些估计值与同时收集的小鹿生存估计值（0.27； 95％CI = 0.185–0.398）结合起来，以模拟种群轨迹和弹性。我们使用非狩猎生存的估计（估计的每年生存，不包括收获的死亡率）来预测相对于4个收获水平（0％，10％，20％，30％）的人口增长（λ）。最后，我们调查了在当前管理下和消除雌性收获的情况下，降低小鹿存活率对种群增长的影响。尽管有大量的小鹿捕食，TRNWR上的鹿种群仍在增加（λ= 1.06），并可以维持额外的雌性收成。然而，预计该种群的女性收成将下降20％（λ= 0.98）和30％（λ= 0.94）。如果没有雌性收割，预计种群数量会随观察到的增加（λ= 1.15）而降低的小鹿存活率（λ= 1.02），但是如果小鹿存活率下降（λ= 0.90），种群将无法维持当前的雌性收成（10％）。 。在所有情况下，成年女性的生存是最有弹性的参数。鉴于成年雌性成活的重要性，成年成活对收获管理的响应的相对可预测性以及改变小鹿成活的困难，减少雌性成年可能是补偿低小鹿成活的最有效方法。在我们这样高产的地方，减少但不一定消除收成可以减轻低矮小鹿存活对人口增长的影响。©2020野生动物协会。