Climate change can alter the habitat suitability of invasive species and promote their establishment. The highly polyphagous brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), is native to East Asia and invasive in Europe and North America, damaging a wide variety of fruit and vegetable crops. In Switzerland, crop damage and increasing populations have been observed since 2017 and related to increasing temperatures. We studied the climatic suitability, population growth, and the number of generations under present and future climate conditions for H. halys in Switzerland, using a modified version of the bioclimatic model package CLIMEX. To address the high topographic variability in Switzerland, model simulations were based on climate data of high spatial resolution (approx. 2 km), which significantly increased their explanatory power, and identified many more climatically suitable areas in comparison to previous models. The validation of the CLIMEX model using observational records collected in a citizen science initiative between 2004 and 2019 revealed that more than 15 years after its accidental introduction, H. halys has colonised nearly all bioclimatic suitable areas in Switzerland and there is limited potential for range expansion into new areas under present climate conditions. Simulations with climate change scenarios suggest an extensive range expansion into higher altitudes, an increase in generations per year, an earlier start of H. halys activity in spring and a prolonged period for nymphs to complete development in autumn. A permanent shift from one to two generations per year and the associated population growth of H. halys may result in increasing crop damages in Switzerland. These results highlight the need for monitoring the spread and population development in the north-western part of Switzerland and higher altitudes of the valleys of the south.

中文翻译：

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瑞士褐蠹蝽（Halyomorpha halys）的当前分布和伏定现象及其使用高分辨率 CLIMEX 模型对气候变化的响应

气候变化可以改变入侵物种的栖息地适宜性并促进它们的建立。高度多食的棕色砗磲臭虫 Halyomorpha halys Stål（半翅目：Pentatomidae）原产于东亚，入侵欧洲和北美，危害多种水果和蔬菜作物。在瑞士，自 2017 年以来已经观察到作物受损和人口增加，这与气温升高有关。我们使用生物气候模型包 CLIMEX 的修改版本研究了瑞士 H. halys 在当前和未来气候条件下的气候适宜性、人口增长和世代数。为了解决瑞士的高地形多变性，模型模拟基于高空间分辨率（约 2 公里）的气候数据，与以前的模型相比，这显着提高了它们的解释力，并确定了更多气候适宜区域。使用 2004 年至 2019 年公民科学计划中收集的观测记录对 CLIMEX 模型进行验证表明，在意外引入 15 年多之后，H. halys 已经在瑞士几乎所有适合生物气候的地区进行了殖民，其范围扩展的潜力有限在目前的气候条件下进入新的领域。对气候变化情景的模拟表明，范围扩大到更高的海拔，每年的世代增加，H. halys 活动在春季更早开始，若虫在秋季完成发育的时间延长。每年从一代到两代的永久转变以及与 H. halys 相关的人口增长可能会导致瑞士的作物损失增加。这些结果凸显了监测瑞士西北部和南部山谷更高海拔地区的传播和人口发展的必要性。