Future climate change will likely impact the multiple freshwater ecosystem services (fES) provided by catchments through their landscapes and river systems. However, there is high spatio-temporal uncertainty on those impacts linked to climate change uncertainty and the natural and anthropogenic interdependencies of water management systems. This study identifies current and future spatial patterns of fES production in a highly managed water resource system in northern India to inform the design and assessment of plausible adaptation measures to enhance fES production in the catchment under uncertain climate change. A water resource systems modelling approach is used to evaluate fES across the full range of plausible future scenarios, to identify the (worst-case) climate change scenarios triggering the greatest impacts and assess the capacity of adaptation to enhance fES. Results indicate that the current and future states of the fES depend on the spatial patterns of climate change and the impacts of infrastructure management on river flows. Natural zones deliver more regulating and cultural services than anthropized areas, although they are more climate-sensitive. The implementation of a plausible adaptation strategy only manages to slightly enhance fES in the system with respect to no adaptation. These results demonstrate that water resource systems models are powerful tools to capture complex system dependencies and inform the design of robust catchment management measures. They also highlight that mitigation and more ambitious adaptation strategies are needed to offset climate change impacts in highly climate-sensitive catchments.

中文翻译：

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在不确定的未来气候下，在受管理的喜马拉雅河流系统中提高淡水生态系统服务的生产和流动

未来的气候变化可能会影响集水区通过其景观和河流系统提供的多种淡水生态系统服务 (fES)。然而，与气候变化不确定性以及水资源管理系统的自然和人为相互依存关系相关的那些影响存在高度的时空不确定性。本研究确定了印度北部高度管理的水资源系统中 fES 生产的当前和未来空间模式，为设计和评估合理的适应措施提供信息，以在不确定的气候变化下提高流域的 fES 生产。水资源系统建模方法用于评估所有可能的未来情景中的 fES，确定引发最大影响的（最坏情况）气候变化情景，并评估适应能力以增强 fES。结果表明，fES 的当前和未来状态取决于气候变化的空间格局和基础设施管理对河流流量的影响。自然区比人类化地区提供更多的调节和文化服务，尽管它们对气候更加敏感。相对于没有适应，合理的适应策略的实施只能稍微提高系统中的 fES。这些结果表明，水资源系统模型是捕获复杂系统依赖关系并为设计稳健的集水区管理措施提供信息的有力工具。