The Pudu deer (Pudu puda) is endemic to the temperate rainforest of Chile and Argentina and currently faces serious conservation problems related to habitat loss. However, studies undertaken on this species are not sufficient to identify suitable areas for conservation purposes across its distribution range. In order to estimate the current and future distribution of the Pudu deer in southern Chile, we modelled the potential distribution of this species, based on occurrence points taken from seven contiguous provinces of this area using the Maxent modelling method. The Pudu deer distribution covered an estimated area of 17,912 km2 (24.1% of the area analysed), using a probability of occurrence above 0.529, according to the threshold that maximises the sum of sensitivity and specificity. In contrast to the Andes mountain range, areas with higher probabilities of occurrence were distributed mainly on the eastern and western slopes of the Coastal Mountain Range, where extensive coverage of native forest persists, as occurs in the provinces of Ranco, Osorno and Llanquihue. Projections to 2070, with global warming scenarios of 2.6 and 8.5 rcp, revealed that large areas will conserve their habitability, especially in the Coastal mountain range. Our results reveal that the Coastal mountain range has a high current and future habitability condition for the Pudu deer, a fact which may have conservation implications for this species.

中文翻译：

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智利南部普渡鹿（Pudu puda）的分布模型

普渡鹿（Pudu puda）是智利和阿根廷的温带雨林特有的物种，目前面临着与生境丧失有关的严重保护问题。但是，对该物种进行的研究不足以在其分布范围内确定合适的保护区。为了估算智利南部普渡鹿的当前和未来分布，我们使用Maxent建模方法，根据该地区七个连续省份的发生点，对该物种的潜在分布进行了建模。根据使敏感性和特异性之和最大化的阈值，普渡鹿分布的估计面积为17912 km2（已分析面积的24.1％），使用概率大于0.529。与安第斯山脉相比，发生概率较高的地区主要分布在沿海山脉的东部和西部斜坡上，那里的原始森林仍然广泛覆盖，就像兰科，奥索尔诺和兰基胡埃等省一样。预测到2070年，全球变暖情景分别为2.6和8.5 rcp，这表明大面积地区将保留其宜居性，尤其是在沿海山脉中。我们的结果表明，沿海山脉对普渡鹿具有较高的当前和未来的居住条件，这一事实可能对该物种具有保护意义。全球变暖情景分别为2.6和8.5 rcp，这表明大面积地区将保留其宜居性，尤其是在沿海山脉中。我们的结果表明，沿海山脉对普渡鹿具有较高的当前和未来的居住条件，这一事实可能对该物种具有保护意义。全球变暖情景分别为2.6和8.5 rcp，这表明大面积地区将保留其宜居性，尤其是在沿海山脉中。我们的结果表明，沿海山脉对普渡鹿具有较高的当前和未来的居住条件，这一事实可能对该物种具有保护意义。