The Alpine fault, one of the major fault systems in New Zealand, extends over 600 km in the South Island. There is a high probability of a rupture in the next 50 years, meaning that the next large earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within our, or our children’s, lifetime. This is predicted to result in severe damage to the built environment, especially to infrastructure. To estimate the performance of the road network impacted by an Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 earthquake scenario, this research developed a generalizable methodology to simulate post-disaster transportation impacts on a large regional road network. This included the base model development and model calibration, as well as validation in a post-disaster situation. Post-disaster corridor and district trip analyses were undertaken using the outputs of the dynamic assignment, including mean travel time, total travel time, total travelled distance, and flow. The result of corridor analysis shows the significant increase in flow and total travel time on SH1 between Marlborough and SH7, and SH6 connecting Nelson to Marlborough one day and one week after the impact. The trip analysis of one day, one week, six months, and beyond six months after the earthquake indicates that around 2.02%, 1.16%, 0.39%, and 0.13% of total trips, respectively, cannot occur due to accessibility issues. Almost all of the inter-district trips from the three main impacted districts, namely Buller, Westland, and Grey, would be cancelled for at least one week after the earthquake with the impact on operational performance still ongoing. Trips that can occur typically face a significant increase in travelled distance and, consequently, travel time. The outputs from this model will provide emergency response and transportation organisations with critical information regarding the performance of the network following an Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 earthquake.

高山断裂是新西兰的主要断裂系统之一，在南岛延伸了600多公里。在接下来的50年中，破裂的可能性很高，这意味着在阿尔卑斯断层发生的下一次大地震很可能在我们或我们的孩子的一生中发生。预计这将严重损害建筑环境，尤其是基础设施。为了估算受8级断层地震影响的路网的性能，本研究开发了一种可推广的方法来模拟灾后运输对大型区域路网的影响。这包括基础模型开发和模型校准，以及在灾后情况下的验证。使用动态分配的输出进行了灾后走廊和区域旅行分析，包括平均旅行时间，总旅行时间，总旅行距离和流量。走廊分析的结果表明，撞击后第一天和一周，SH1在Marlborough和SH7之间以及SH6将纳尔逊与Marlborough连接起来的流量和总旅行时间显着增加。地震后一天，一周，六个月和六个月以上的行程分析表明，由于可访问性问题，分别不会发生总行程的约2​​.02％，1.16％，0.39％和0.13％。地震发生后，至少三个星期，来自三个主要受影响地区（即布勒，韦斯特兰和格雷）的所有跨地区旅行将被取消，至少对运营绩效的影响仍然存在。可能发生的旅行通常会大大增加行进距离，因此会增加旅行时间。