The sustainability of the ship recycling industry strongly linked with the global shipping market and international commodity flows. More than 80% of the End of Life (EoL) ships are dismantled in South Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Due to measures taken to minimize the propagation of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), an international supply chain is broken to a historic low, except for certain medical-related urgencies. Due to the disruption of global supply chains, the industry may submerge into uncertainty due to, perhaps, lack of adequate labor force to dismantle increased EoL ships and due to disturbances of vessel transportation to the recycling nations amid strong precautionary measures. Our estimate suggests that about 300 million Gross Tonnage (GT) available for demolition in the next five years and the inability to get them recycled would cost about 20 billion dollars. More importantly, South Asian recycling nations would suffer from economic losses and employment opportunities. In this study, we also apply a scenario analysis technique to understand the impact range of COVID-19 in the short term and in the long term. The disruption is viewed through a circular economy framework, identifying a critical lack of ‘global scale’ acknowledgment in the circular economy framework. This article suggests that a formalized global scale, paralleled with favorable policies, may reduce supply chain disruption and improve sustainable development in the receiving nations.

拆船业的可持续发展与全球航运市场和国际商品流通紧密相关。在南亚国家（孟加拉国，印度和巴基斯坦），超过80％的寿命终止（EoL）船舶被拆除。由于采取了减少冠状病毒疾病（COVID-19）传播的措施，国际供应链被打破到历史最低点，除了某些与医学有关的紧急情况。由于全球供应链的中断，该行业可能会陷入不确定性，这可能是由于缺乏足够的劳动力来拆除增加的EoL船舶，以及由于在强有力的预防措施中船舶向回收国的运输受到干扰。我们的估计表明，未来五年约有3亿总吨（GT）可供拆除，如果无法回收，将耗资约200亿美元。更重要的是，南亚回收国将遭受经济损失和就业机会的困扰。在这项研究中，我们还将应用情景分析技术来了解COVID-19的短期和长期影响范围。通过循环经济框架来观察这种破坏，确定循环经济框架中严重缺乏对“全球规模”的认识。本文认为，正式的全球规模，加上有利的政策，可以减少供应链中断，并改善接受国的可持续发展。更重要的是，南亚回收国将遭受经济损失和就业机会的困扰。在这项研究中，我们还将应用情景分析技术来了解COVID-19的短期和长期影响范围。通过循环经济框架来观察这种破坏，确定循环经济框架中严重缺乏对“全球规模”的认识。本文认为，正式的全球规模，加上有利的政策，可以减少供应链中断，并改善接受国的可持续发展。更重要的是，南亚回收国将遭受经济损失和就业机会的困扰。在这项研究中，我们还将应用情景分析技术来了解COVID-19的短期和长期影响范围。通过循环经济框架来观察这种破坏，确定循环经济框架中严重缺乏对“全球规模”的认识。本文认为，正式的全球规模，加上有利的政策，可以减少供应链中断，并改善接受国的可持续发展。通过循环经济框架来观察这种破坏，确定循环经济框架中严重缺乏对“全球规模”的认识。本文认为，正式的全球规模，加上有利的政策，可以减少供应链中断，并改善接受国的可持续发展。通过循环经济框架来观察这种破坏，确定循环经济框架中严重缺乏对“全球规模”的认识。本文认为，正式的全球规模，加上有利的政策，可以减少供应链中断，并改善接受国的可持续发展。