Abstract Turbine bladed disks normally operate under complex loadings coupling with uncertainties originate from multiple sources, including material variability, load variation and geometrical uncertainty. The influence of these uncertainties on mechanical response of engineering components are critical for their fatigue assessment and reliability evaluation. In this work, a general framework for fatigue reliability analysis is developed by coupling the Latin hypercube sampling with FE analysis to describe the combined effects of multi-source uncertainties. Fatigue reliability analysis of a full-scale bladed disk under multi-source uncertainties was performed as well as sensitivity analysis for fatigue design. In order to describe the manufacturing errors or tolerances, random dimensions are inputted. Comparing the predicted fatigue lifetime distributions with/without geometrical uncertainty, it shows that geometrical uncertainty matters in structural fatigue reliability. Particularly, sensitivity analysis indicates that the geometrical uncertainty exerts more critical influences on the fatigue lifetime and reliability of the turbine bladed disk than others. The sensitivity factors of three typical dimensions emerges the influence of designed sizes and dimensional tolerances on the failure probability, which provides a reference for engineering design.

中文翻译：

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涡轮叶盘疲劳可靠性分析中不确定性的概率建模

摘要 涡轮叶片盘通常在复杂载荷下运行，不确定性来自多种来源，包括材料可变性、载荷变化和几何不确定性。这些不确定性对工程部件机械响应的影响对其疲劳评估和可靠性评估至关重要。在这项工作中，通过将拉丁超立方采样与有限元分析相结合，开发了疲劳可靠性分析的通用框架，以描述多源不确定性的综合影响。进行了多源不确定性下全尺寸叶片盘的疲劳可靠性分析以及疲劳设计的敏感性分析。为了描述制造误差或公差，输入随机尺寸。比较有/没有几何不确定性的预测疲劳寿命分布，它表明几何不确定性对结构疲劳可靠性很重要。特别是敏感性分析表明，几何不确定性对涡轮叶片盘的疲劳寿命和可靠性的影响比其他因素更重要。三个典型尺寸的敏感因素出现设计尺寸和尺寸公差对失效概率的影响，为工程设计提供参考。敏感性分析表明，几何不确定性对涡轮叶盘的疲劳寿命和可靠性的影响比其他因素更重要。三个典型尺寸的敏感因素出现设计尺寸和尺寸公差对失效概率的影响，为工程设计提供参考。敏感性分析表明，几何不确定性对涡轮叶盘的疲劳寿命和可靠性的影响比其他因素更重要。三个典型尺寸的敏感因素出现设计尺寸和尺寸公差对失效概率的影响，为工程设计提供参考。