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Climatology of dust days in the Central Plateau of Iran
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04248-6
Tayyebeh Mesbahzadeh , Ali Salajeghe , Farshad Soleimani Sardoo , Gholamreza Zehtabian , Abbas Ranjbar , Nir Y. Krakauer , Mario Marcello Miglietta , Maryam Mirakbari

Dust storms are a major natural hazard to human health. Severe erosive storms in parts of the Central Plateau of Iran have made the situation very difficult for the inhabitants, to the extent that some areas have become depopulated. To better understand this phenomenon, dust day counts at 37 synoptic stations from 1999 to 2018 were analyzed. Dust days were most common in June, with 45% of the total number occurring in summer (June–August) and 34% in spring (March–May), and were more frequent since 2008, as compared to 1999-2007. While the spatial pattern of dust days was complex, the highest number tended to be in the southeast of the region. The stations with the most dust days, Zabol, Zahedan, and Arak, averaged 126 days, 74 days, and 73 days of dust per year, respectively. The statistical distributions that most often best fitted the time series of number of dust days (NDD) per year were Johnson SB, Log-Logistic 3-Parameter, and Burr. These fitted probability distributions were used to estimate different return period values for annual number of dust days. For example, Zabol and Sirjan stations had, respectively, the highest and lowest 2-year return period NDD values, 125 and 2 days, respectively. Overall, the spatial pattern of the NDD at different return periods indicated that southeastern Iran, as well as some northwestern and eastern portions of the study region, had particularly high values of NDD at longer return periods, while much of the northern and southwestern margins of the region have low NDD at all return periods. These results may be useful for informing the regional management of dust storms.



中文翻译:

伊朗中部高原沙尘天气的气候学

沙尘暴是对人类健康的主要自然危害。伊朗中部高原部分地区遭受严重的暴风雨袭击,使居民的处境非常困难,以致某些地区人口稀少。为了更好地了解这一现象,分析了1999年至2018年间37个天气观测站的沙尘暴天数。六月的沙尘天最常见,占总数的45%在夏季(6月至8月),在春季(3月至5月)占34%,自1999年以来与1999-2007年相比更为频繁。尽管尘埃日的空间格局复杂,但数量最多的地区往往在该地区的东南部。Zabol,Zahedan和Arak尘埃最多的站点每年平均分别为126天,74天和73天。最常与每年沙尘天数(NDD)的时间序列最匹配的统计分布是Johnson SB,Log-Logistic 3-Parameter和Burr。这些拟合的概率分布用于估计每年沙尘天数的不同返回期值。例如,Zabol和Sirjan站的2年返回期NDD值分别为最高和最低,分别为125天和2天。总体而言,NDD在不同回报期的空间格局表明,伊朗东南部以及研究区域的西北和东部部分在较长回报期具有特别高的NDD值,而伊朗北部和西南边缘的大部分地区该地区在所有回报期的NDD均较低。这些结果可能有助于告知沙尘暴区域管理。

更新日期:2020-08-28
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