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Modelling chronic winter hazards as a function of precipitation and temperature
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04243-x
Hyuk-Jae Roh

In previous research, winter weather conditions like precipitation and cold were recognized as factors affecting the change in traffic volume, and a simulation has been conducted to model the effect of weather factor on variations in traffic flow. A winter weather hazard model considering natural chronic hazards in the winter season has been proposed. To achieve this purpose, this research formulated a dummy variable winter weather traffic model while considering explanatory variables such as expected daily volume, snowfall, and temperature. This model was derived using six-year traffic data that were collected on a weigh-in-motion site on Highway 44, in Alberta, Canada. Precipitation and cold data collected from a weather station were linked with traffic data to model traffic variations caused by weather factors. The performance of the model, on the ground of temporal transferability and model specification, was tested using data from different years. The temporal transferability test confirmed that the model can be successfully applied regardless of the year. It was also revealed that each vehicle class prefers a different model specification in estimating correct traffic volume.



中文翻译:

根据降水和温度对冬季慢性危害进行建模

在先前的研究中,像降水和寒冷这样的冬季天气条件被认为是影响交通量变化的因素,并且已经进行了模拟以模拟天气因素对交通流量变化的影响。提出了考虑冬季自然慢性危害的冬季天气危害模型。为了达到这个目的,本研究制定了一个虚拟变量冬季天气交通模型,同时考虑了预期日流量,降雪量和温度等解释变量。该模型是使用六年交通数据得出的,该数据是在加拿大艾伯塔省44号高速公路的动态称重站点上收集的。从气象站收集的降水和寒冷数据与交通数据相关联,以模拟由天气因素引起的交通变化。模型的性能,基于时间传递性和模型规范,使用了不同年份的数据进行了测试。时间转移性测试证实,无论年份如何,该模型都可以成功应用。还显示出,每种车辆类别在估计正确的交通量时都喜欢不同的模型规格。

更新日期:2020-08-28
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