We outline a new flexible method for estimating maturity that incorporates skip spawning, which can lead to non-asymptotic behavior in the population maturity schedule. This new approach aids fisheries managers who seek to understand marine species’ responses to changing oceans. In an effort to assess shifts in maturity and spawning behavior of west coast groundfish, we used this new method to evaluate spatio-temporal trends in length at maturity, the annual reproductive cycle, and spawning behavior of aurora rockfish (Sebastes aurora). We estimated biological (presence of physiological maturity markers) and functional (potential spawners in a given year) maturity using a standard logistic and the new flexible spline model. The range in lengths at 50% maturity (biological and functional) slightly varied between the two methods (23.66–23.93 and 25.34–25.57 cm). We also investigated spatial trends in maturity and found ~ 2 cm difference in functional maturity between fish sampled north and south of Cape Mendocino, CA (26.22–26.48 and 24.38–24.74 cm). We demonstrate model sensitivity by updating the maturity estimates in the 2013 aurora rockfish stock assessment. Absolute, but not relative, spawning output, was sensitive to model choice, spatial resolution, and the updated data. This new flexible spline model can account for skip spawning, capturing potential spawners in a given year, and thus provides accurate measurements for spawning output models.

中文翻译：

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应用灵活的样条模型来估计极光岩鱼（Sebastes aurora）的功能成熟度和时空变异性

我们概述了一种新的灵活的估计成熟度的方法，该方法结合了跳跃产卵，这可能导致种群成熟度计划中的非渐近行为。这种新方法有助于渔业管理者了解海洋物种对不断变化的海洋的反应。为了评估西海岸底层鱼类成熟度和产卵行为的变化，我们使用这种新方法来评估成熟时长度、年度繁殖周期和极光岩鱼（Sebastes aurora）产卵行为的时空趋势。我们使用标准逻辑和新的灵活样条模型估计了生物（生理成熟标记的存在）和功能（给定年份的潜在产卵者）成熟度。50% 成熟度（生物和功能）的长度范围在两种方法之间略有不同（23.66-23.93 和 25。34–25.57 厘米）。我们还调查了成熟度的空间趋势，发现在加利福尼亚州门多西诺角（26.22-26.48 和 24.38-24.74 厘米）北部和南部采样的鱼之间的功能成熟度差异约 2 厘米。我们通过更新 2013 年极光岩鱼种群评估中的成熟度估计来证明模型的敏感性。绝对而非相对的生成输出对模型选择、空间分辨率和更新的数据很敏感。这种新的灵活样条模型可以考虑跳过产卵，捕获给定年份的潜在产卵者，从而为产卵输出模型提供准确的测量。我们通过更新 2013 年极光岩鱼种群评估中的成熟度估计来证明模型的敏感性。绝对而非相对的生成输出对模型选择、空间分辨率和更新的数据很敏感。这种新的灵活样条模型可以考虑跳过产卵，捕获给定年份的潜在产卵者，从而为产卵输出模型提供准确的测量。我们通过更新 2013 年极光岩鱼种群评估中的成熟度估计来证明模型的敏感性。绝对而非相对的生成输出对模型选择、空间分辨率和更新的数据很敏感。这种新的灵活样条模型可以考虑跳过产卵，捕获给定年份的潜在产卵者，从而为产卵输出模型提供准确的测量。