ABSTRACT: Climate-induced changes in the world’s oceans will have implications for fisheries productivity and management. Using a model ensemble from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), we analyzed future trajectories of climate-change impacts on marine animal biomass and associated environmental drivers across the North Atlantic Ocean and within the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) convention area and evaluated potential consequences for fisheries productivity and management. Our ensemble results showed that the magnitude of projected biomass changes increased over time and from a low (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. Within individual NAFO divisions, however, projected biomass changes differed in the magnitude and sometimes direction of change between near (the 2030s) and far future (the 2090s) and contrasting emissions scenarios. By the 2090s, most NAFO divisions with historically (1990-1999) high fisheries landings were projected to experience biomass decreases of 5-40%, while Arctic and subarctic divisions with lower historical landings were projected to experience biomass increases between 20 and 70% under RCP8.5. Future trajectories of sea surface temperature and primary production corroborated that the far-future, high-emissions scenario poses the greatest risk to marine ecosystems and the greatest challenges to fisheries management. Our study summarizes future trends of marine animal biomass and underlying uncertainties related to model projections under contrasting climate-change scenarios. Understanding such climate-change impacts on marine ecosystems is imperative for ensuring that marine fisheries remain productive and sustainable in a changing ocean.

中文翻译：

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北大西洋的气候变化影响和渔业管理挑战

摘要：气候变化引起的世界海洋变化将对渔业生产力和管理产生影响。使用渔业和海洋生态系统模型比较项目（Fish-MIP）的模型合集，我们分析了北大西洋和西北大西洋渔业组织（NAFO）的气候变化对海洋动物生物量及相关环境驱动因素的未来轨迹）公约区域，并评估了对渔业生产力和管理的潜在影响。我们的整体结果表明，预计生物量变化的幅度会随着时间的推移而增加，从低（RCP2.6）到高（RCP8.5）排放情景。但是，在各个NAFO部门中，预计的生物量变化的幅度在有时（2030年代）和远期（2090年代）之间以及在不同的排放情景之间变化的方向不同。到2090年代，大多数历史上（1990-1999年）渔业上岸的NAFO分区预计生物量减少5-40％，而历史上登陆量较低的北极和亚北极分区预计生物量增加20％至70％。 RCP8.5。未来的海面温度和初级生产轨迹证实了未来的高排放情景对海洋生态系统构成最大风险，对渔业管理构成最大挑战。我们的研究总结了海洋动物生物量的未来趋势以及与气候变化情景相反的模型预测相关的潜在不确定性。