Fate assignment is crucial to the results of survival studies, particularly those that utilize acoustic tagging. Most current methodologies are at least partially subjective; thus, having a means of objectively assigning fates would improve the precision, accuracy, and utility of such studies. We released 57 acoustically tagged fish belonging to six deepwater grouper species off North Carolina, USA, via surface release and recompressed release with descender devices. We applied a three‐state hidden Markov model (HMM) in a novel way: to distinguish movement patterns between fish that were alive and fish that were dead (and might have been eaten by predators). We assigned fates using two approaches that differed in their reliance on HMMs. When HMMs were the predominant source of fate assignment, we estimated survival of 40 deepwater groupers released with descender devices at the continental shelf break (66–120‐m depth) to be 0.46 (95% CI = 0.33–0.65). When a combination of HMMs and prior information was utilized, we estimated survival of the same 40 groupers to be 0.61 (95% CI = 0.47–0.80). Both estimates represented a substantial improvement over the survival of surface‐released groupers (n = 9; survival ~0.0). Furthermore, HMMs estimated zero survival for an additional five descended groupers at a wreck site in 240‐m depth, although one analysis using prior information suggested that survival was possible in that depth. These estimates were aided by the objectivity of HMMs, and we recommend that future survival studies involving acoustic tagging employ similar methodologies. The improved survival of groupers after descending is an important finding for management, as this taxon contains several species of impaired stock status or fishery status.

中文翻译：

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使用隐马尔可夫模型在遥测研究中确定命运：使用下降器设备释放的深水石斑鱼的应用

命运分配对生存研究的结果至关重要，尤其是那些利用声学标签进行的研究。当前大多数方法至少部分是主观的。因此，采用一种客观分配命运的方法将提高此类研究的准确性，准确性和实用性。我们通过表面释放和降压装置的再压缩释放，释放了美国北卡罗莱纳州附近六个深水石斑鱼物种的57个带有声学标签的鱼。我们以一种新颖的方式应用了三态隐马尔可夫模型（HMM）：区分活鱼和死鱼（可能被掠食者吃掉）之间的运动模式。我们使用两种对命运的依赖不同的方法来分配命运。当HMM是命运分配的主要来源时，我们估计在大陆架断裂处（66-120-m深度）使用下降装置释放的40个深水石斑鱼的存活率为0.46（95％CI = 0.33-0.65）。当结合使用HMM和先验信息时，我们估计相同的40个石斑鱼的生存率为0.61（95％CI = 0.47–0.80）。两项估算均表明，表面释放的石斑鱼的存活率有了显着提高（n = 9；生存〜0.0）。此外，HMM估计在240 m深度的沉船处，另外五只石斑鱼的零存活率，尽管一项使用先验信息的分析表明，在该深度可以存活。这些估计值是由HMM的客观性所辅助的，我们建议涉及声标的未来生存研究采用类似的方法。石斑鱼下降后存活率的提高是管理的重要发现，因为该分类单元包含几种种群状况或渔业状况受损的物种。