Addressing the sensitivity of forecast impact to flight path design for targeted observations of extratropical winter storms: A demonstration in an OSSE framework,Meteorological Applications

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Addressing the sensitivity of forecast impact to flight path design for targeted observations of extratropical winter storms: A demonstration in an OSSE framework
Meteorological Applications ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-26 , DOI: 10.1002/met.1942
A. C. Kren _{1,

2} , L. Cucurull ₂ , H. Wang _{3,

4}

Affiliation

Few studies have examined the forecast uncertainties brought about from varying aircraft flight track patterns in targeted observations for extratropical winter storms. To examine the degree of uncertainty in downstream forecasts caused by different aircraft flight patterns, a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed and demonstrated for two extratropical winter storms identified in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) T511 Nature Run using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Data Assimilation System and Global Forecast System (Q1FY15). Winter storms were chosen to support operational Pacific Ocean targeting strategies using unmanned aircraft. For these two storms, objective and composite flight tracks are generated as they could occur in an operational field mission to sample sensitive areas and meteorologically important regions, and then the changes in downstream forecasts across the various flight tracks are evaluated. The forecast impact downstream is sensitive to flight track orientation and shows case‐dependent results, with some flight patterns leading to significant improvements, while others result in neutral to degraded forecasts. The degree of downstream uncertainty in the verification region can vary up to 8% from the different flight paths, depending on the metric used and the atmospheric variables analysed. Although the study is a demonstration of the technique and is limited to only two case studies, it suggests that uncertainty in flight path design should not be neglected in future field missions. Some guidance for mitigating this uncertainty is also discussed.

中文翻译：

解决针对热带温带冬季风暴的目标观测的预测影响对飞行路径设计的敏感性：在OSSE框架中的演示

很少有研究在对亚热带冬季风暴进行有针对性的观测时，检查了由变化的飞机飞行轨迹模式带来的预测不确定性。为了检查由不同飞机飞行模式引起的下游预报的不确定性程度，针对欧洲中距离天气预报中心（ECMWF）T511中确定的两次温带冬季风暴，进行了一系列观测系统模拟实验（OSSE）并进行了演示。 Nature Run使用国家环境预测中心的全球数据同化系统和全球预测系统（2015财年第一季度）。选择冬季风暴来支持使用无人驾驶飞机执行太平洋目标作战策略。对于这两次风暴，生成目标飞行轨迹和复合飞行轨迹，因为它们可能发生在实地任务中，以对敏感区域和重要气象区域进行采样，然后评估各个飞行轨迹的下游预报的变化。下游的预测影响对飞行轨迹的方向很敏感，并显示了与案例有关的结果，其中一些飞行模式导致了重大改进，而另一些则导致了中性至降级的预测。根据所使用的度量标准和所分析的大气变量，在不同的飞行路径中，验证区域中下游不确定性的程度可能相差8％。尽管该研究只是对该技术的演示，并且仅限于两个案例研究，它表明在未来的野外任务中不应忽略飞行路径设计中的不确定性。还讨论了一些缓解这种不确定性的指导。

更新日期：2020-08-26

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