The rapid expansion of rubber and oil palm plantations in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia, is associated with largescale deforestation and the impairment of many ecosystem services. According to villagers’ observations, this land use change has, together with climate change, led to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of river flood events, which constrain village and plantation development. Based on this empirical societal problem, we investigate whether we can find measurable indications for the presumed linkages between land use change, climate change, and changing flooding regimes. We follow an explorative, bottom-up research approach that builds on a review of multidisciplinary datasets, integrating local ecological knowledge with scientific measurements from soil science, climatology, hydrology, and remote sensing. We found that water levels of one of the largest rivers in Jambi Province, the Tembesi, have increased significantly during the last two decades. Data of local and regional meteorological stations show that alterations in rainfall patterns may only partly explain these changes. Rather, increased soil densities and decreased water infiltration rates in monoculture plantations suggest an increase in surface runoff following forest conversion. Moreover, additional interview data reveal that an increasing encroachment of wetlands in Jambi Province may contribute to changes in local flooding regimes, as the construction of drainage and flood control infrastructure redistributes floodwater at the local scale. We conclude that changing flooding regimes are the result of multiple interacting social-ecological processes associated with the expansion of rubber and oil palm plantations in Jambi Province. Although ecohydrological changes are likely to contribute to an increase of flood occurrence, their social impacts are increasingly mediated through flood control infrastructure on industrial oil palm plantations.

中文翻译：

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苏门答腊占碑省的洪水和土地利用变化：整合当地知识和科学探究

印度尼西亚苏门答腊占碑省橡胶和油棕种植园的快速扩张与大规模森林砍伐和许多生态系统服务受损有关。根据村民的观察，这种土地利用变化与气候变化一起导致河流洪水事件的规模和频率增加，从而限制了村庄和种植园的发展。基于这个经验性社会问题，我们调查是否可以找到可衡量的迹象，表明土地利用变化、气候变化和不断变化的洪水状况之间的假定联系。我们遵循探索性、自下而上的研究方法，该方法建立在对多学科数据集的审查之上，将当地生态知识与土壤科学、气候学、水文学和遥感的科学测量相结合。我们发现占碑省最大的河流之一坦贝西河的水位在过去二十年中显着增加。地方和区域气象站的数据表明，降雨模式的改变可能只能部分解释这些变化。相反，单一栽培种植园中土壤密度的增加和水渗透率的降低表明森林转化后地表径流增加。此外，额外的访谈数据显示，占碑省湿地日益被侵占可能会导致当地洪水状况发生变化，因为排水和防洪基础设施的建设在当地范围内重新分配洪水。我们得出结论，不断变化的洪水状况是与占碑省橡胶和油棕种植园扩张相关的多种相互作用的社会生态过程的结果。尽管生态水文变化可能会导致洪水发生的增加，但其社会影响越来越多地通过工业油棕种植园的防洪基础设施来调节。