Abstract The genus Microgecko Nikolsky 1907 belongs to the family Gekkonidae and contains eight species distributed in Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, northwestern India and, probably, in Iraq. Among them, the Latifi's dwarf gecko, Microgecko latifi, is endemic to central and southwestern Iran. We used MaxEnt modeling approach to investigate the effects of climate change and potential distribution of M. latifi. A total of 29 presence records and five factors related to precipitation and temperature were collected and used in the modeling approach for past, present and future. Our findings showed that Central Persia, the largest terrestrial ecoregion of Iran, hosts the most suitable environment for M. latifi under the current climate as well as under future scenarios. Differently, Zagros Mountains hosted the most suitable environment for this species under past climate. This is in line with previous studies that identified Zagros, Alborz, Kopet-Dagh Mountains and northwestern Iran as important Pleistocene refugia. Among environmental variables, precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important driving factor for all models. According to other studies, species richness and diversity of lizards in Iran are higher in hot and arid environments; also considering the possible effects of global warming, further investigations are required in those environments.

中文翻译：

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预测伊朗特有物种 Microgecko latifi (Sauria: Gekkonidae) 过去、现在和未来的栖息地适宜性和地理分布

摘要 Microgecko Nikolsky 1907 属壁虎科，共有八种，分布于伊朗、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、印度西北部，可能还有伊拉克。其中，Latifi 的侏儒壁虎 Microgecko latifi 是伊朗中部和西南部的特有种。我们使用 MaxEnt 建模方法来研究气候变化的影响和 M. latifi 的潜在分布。总共收集了 29 个存在记录和 5 个与降水和温度相关的因素，并用于过去、现在和未来的建模方法。我们的研究结果表明，在当前气候和未来情景下，伊朗最大的陆地生态区中波斯拥有最适合 M. latifi 的环境。不同的是，在过去的气候下，扎格罗斯山脉为该物种提供了最适合的环境。这与之前的研究一致，这些研究将扎格罗斯、阿尔伯兹、科佩特-达格山脉和伊朗西北部确定为重要的更新世避难所。在环境变量中，最暖季的降水是所有模型最重要的驱动因素。根据其他研究，伊朗蜥蜴的物种丰富度和多样性在炎热和干旱的环境中更高；还考虑到全球变暖的可能影响，需要对这些环境进行进一步调查。最暖季的降水是所有模型最重要的驱动因素。根据其他研究，伊朗蜥蜴的物种丰富度和多样性在炎热和干旱的环境中更高；还考虑到全球变暖的可能影响，需要对这些环境进行进一步调查。最暖季的降水是所有模型最重要的驱动因素。根据其他研究，伊朗蜥蜴的物种丰富度和多样性在炎热和干旱的环境中更高；还考虑到全球变暖的可能影响，需要对这些环境进行进一步调查。