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A methodology for analyzing and forecasting sociopolitical destabilization.
Biosystems ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.biosystems.2020.104229
Ilya Ilyin 1 , Leonid Issaev 2 , Sergey Malkov 3
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The article presents a methodology for the analysis of political crises meant to assess the current situation of sociopolitical (in)stability of the developing and developed societies in question, provide an inertial forecast of the developing situation in a given period, analyse threats to stability threats, and examine possible measures to counteract such threats and their likely influence on the situation. The methodology is based on modeling sociopolitical stability in the country in question with the help of an elaborate logical-mathematical model.



中文翻译:

一种分析和预测社会政治不稳定的方法。

本文提出了一种政治危机分析方法,旨在评估相关发展中和发达社会的社会政治(不稳定)现状,提供特定时期发展形势的惯性预测,分析对稳定威胁的威胁。 ,并研究应对此类威胁的可能措施及其对局势的可能影响。该方法基于在精心设计的逻辑数学模型的帮助下对相关国家的社会政治稳定性进行建模。

更新日期:2020-08-26
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