ABSTRACT

The Korean construction industry has attracted interest and investment demand for lease-oriented investment products, such as shopping malls and studio apartments, as a substitute for financial products because of the low interest rates of the banks that resulted from the economic recession after the global financial crisis in 2008. However, there have been huge economic damages because of problems such as the oversupply, the increase in the unsold presale rate, and the decrease in rental profit. For studio-apartment development projects, dynamic analysis should be applied considering the correlation of variables in business analysis, which is complicated by such factors as profit structure and money flow. Therefore, we aim in this study to develop a statistical analysis model of studio apartments using probabilistic estimation. For this purpose, we developed a causal-loop diagram and established a simulation and optimization model. The developed model was verified by applying it to actual cases. Our results can be used as a reference for the optimization and risk management of studio-apartment business analysis in academia. In addition, from a practical point of view, this model can be used to develop a forecasting feasibility study based on risk and for business feasibility analysis.

摘要

由于全球金融危机后经济衰退导致银行利率低，韩国建筑业对购物中心和单间公寓等租赁型投资产品作为金融产品的替代品吸引了兴趣和投资需求。 2008年的危机，但由于供过于求、未售出预售率上升、租金利润下降等问题，造成了巨大的经济损失。对于单间公寓开发项目，在业务分析中考虑变量的相关性，应采用动态分析，业务分析受利润结构、资金流向等因素的影响较为复杂。因此，我们在本研究中旨在使用概率估计开发一室公寓的统计分析模型。以此目的，我们开发了因果循环图并建立了仿真和优化模型。通过将其应用于实际案例来验证开发的模型。我们的研究结果可以作为学术界工作室公寓商业分析优化和风险管理的参考。此外，从实践的角度来看，该模型可用于开发基于风险的预测可行性研究和业务可行性分析。