Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.

中文翻译：

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影响预测以支持自然灾害的应急管理

预测和预警系统是保护生命，财产和生计的重要投资。尽管预警系统通常用于预测潜在破坏性事件的严重程度，位置和时间，但这些系统很少提供影响估计，例如预期的物理损坏量和分布，人为后果，服务中断或财务损失。将预警系统与影响预测相结合具有双重优势：它可以为决策者提供更丰富的信息，以就紧急措施做出明智的决策，并将不同学科的注意力集中在一个共同的目标上。这样可以利用不同学科之间的协同作用，并促进多灾种预警系统的发展。这篇评论讨论了广泛的自然灾害影响预测中的最新技术。我们概述了与紧急情况下的危害预测相比，基于影响的警告的附加值，指出了挑战和陷阱，并综合了与欧洲最相关的危害类型的审查结果。