Abstract This study presents a methodology for the probabilistic analysis of the environmental vibrations induced by high-speed trains considering the uncertainty of soil parameters. A deterministic ground vibration prediction model with high calculation efficiency is developed to evaluate the train-induced ground vibration. Then uncertain soil parameters are treated as random variables based on the field measurement results. With the aid of Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic analysis is performed to find the statistical information of the uncertain environmental vibration level and to estimate its probability of exceeding the allowable vibration limit. It is found that the variability of the train-induced vibration level becomes remarkable as the soil variability and train speed increase. Without considering soil variability, the deterministic analysis would give wrong information for decision makers when evaluating the vibration limit exceedance of train-induced ground vibration.

中文翻译：

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高速列车环境振动的概率分析

摘要 本研究提出了一种考虑土壤参数不确定性的高速列车引起的环境振动的概率分析方法。开发了一种具有高计算效率的确定性地面振动预测模型，用于评估列车诱发的地面振动。然后根据现场测量结果将不确定的土壤参数作为随机变量处理。借助蒙特卡罗模拟，进行概率分析，找出不确定环境振动水平的统计信息，并估计其超出允许振动极限的概率。结果表明，随着土壤变异性和列车速度的增加，列车引起的振动水平的变异性变得显着。不考虑土壤变异性，