Spatial and temporal variations of shipping along Russia's Northern Sea Route (NSR) were investigated to better understand the possible drivers of traffic levels and future trends. Daily information for ships sailing along the NSR were collected, and voyage-based analyses were conducted for a period from March 2013 to December 2018. Annual total dead weight tonnage (DWT) increased significantly from 3.95 million tons in 2013 to 24.61 million tons in 2018, and most of this was carried by dry cargo ships, oil tankers and LNG carriers between Europe and the Kara Sea. Annual total DWT was relatively high during 2015–2017 for dry cargo ships, whereas annual total DWT increased rapidly for oil tankers from 2016 and for LNG carriers in 2018. The relatively high level of shipping for dry cargo ships during 2015–2017 is attributable to the Yamal LNG project construction, while the rapidly increased annual total DWT for oil tankers and LNG carriers is due to the transportation of crude oil from the Novy Port project, and LNG from the Yamal LNG project. Recent NSR shipping is mainly driven by development and marine transportation of Russian Arctic natural resources, and this increasing trend should become faster in the near future as operation of the Arctic LNG-2, Taymyr coal and other projects are commissioned.

调查了俄罗斯北海航线（NSR）沿线航运的时空变化，以更好地了解交通量和未来趋势的可能驱动因素。收集了沿NSR航行的船舶的每日信息，并从2013年3月至2018年12月进行了基于航次的分析。年度总载重吨（DWT）从2013年的395万吨大幅增加到2018年的2461万吨，其中大部分是由干货船，油轮和LNG船在欧洲和卡拉海之间运送的。2015–2017年间，干货船的年度总载重吨数相对较高，而油轮的年总载重吨数从2016年开始迅速增长，而液化天然气船的年载重吨数则在2018年迅速增加。2015–2017年间，干货船的运输水平相对较高，这归因于亚马尔LNG项目的建设，而油船和LNG船的年度总载重吨的迅速增长是由于来自Novy Port项目的原油运输，和来自Yamal LNG项目的LNG。最近的NSR运输主要由俄罗斯北极自然资源的开发和海上运输驱动，随着北极LNG-2，Taymyr煤炭和其他项目的投产，这种增长趋势在不久的将来应该会更快。