Abstract Changes in climate have a direct impact on basin hydrology, soil erosion, and sediment yield and this could adversely affect the water availability and efficiency of hydraulic structures. Hence, there is a need to assess the relationship between climate, hydrology, and related processes. In this study, future climate data on three regional climate models: REMO, CNRM, and MPI under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are downscaled using linear scaling techniques to create climate change scenarios in the Swat River Basin of Pakistan. In this study, the relationships between climate, discharge, and sediment yield are analysed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), while also evaluating the effectiveness of two adaptation options: sediment management, i.e., check dams, silt fences, terraces, and sediment basins; and two erosion reduction options, i.e., filter strips and grassed waterways. Based on the results, an overall increase in temperature of 0.6 to 2.3 °C in the 2020s, 1.1 to 3.3 °C in the 2050s, and 2 to 5.6 °C in the 2080s is projected relative to the baseline period (1979–2005). The precipitation change varies from −24 to 34%. The model R2 values are 0.67 and 0.75, while NSE values are 0.63 and 0.74 during calibration (1984–1993) and validation periods (1994–2001), respectively. The overall change in future streamflow is predicted to vary from −28 to 28%. The projected annual average sediment yield at the outlet of the basin follows a pattern similar to that exhibited by precipitation and discharge. The results indicate that the provision of terraces, silt fences, a sediment basin, check dam, filter strips, and grassed waterway reduce the sediment yield in the basin by 73, 66, 65, 58, 54, and 48%, respectively. We conclude that a sediment basin is the most economical option for the management of soil erosion under climate change in the case of the Swat River.

中文翻译：

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评估巴基斯坦斯瓦特河流域因气候变化减少土壤侵蚀的适应方案

摘要 气候变化对流域水文、土壤侵蚀和泥沙产量有直接影响，这会对水利设施的可用水量和效率产生不利影响。因此，需要评估气候、水文和相关过程之间的关系。在这项研究中，在 RCP 4.5 和 8.5 情景下，三个区域气候模型的未来气候数据：REMO、CNRM 和 MPI 使用线性缩放技术缩小规模，以在巴基斯坦斯瓦特河流域创建气候变化情景。在这项研究中，使用土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 分析了气候、流量和沉积物产量之间的关系，同时还评估了两种适应方案的有效性：沉积物管理，即检查水坝、淤泥围栏、梯田、和沉积盆地；和两个减少侵蚀的选择，即过滤带和草地水道。根据结果​​，相对于基线期（1979-2005 年），预计 2020 年代温度总体升高 0.6 至 2.3°C，2050 年代总体温度升高 1.1 至 3.3°C，2080 年代总体温度升高 2 至 5.6°C . 降水变化从-24% 到 34% 不等。模型 R2 值分别为 0.67 和 0.75，而在校准 (1984-1993) 和验证期间 (1994-2001) 期间，NSE 值分别为 0.63 和 0.74。预计未来流量的总体变化将在 -28% 到 28% 之间变化。流域出口处预计的年平均产沙量遵循与降水和排放所显示的模式相似的模式。结果表明，提供梯田、淤泥围栏、沉积池、检查坝、过滤带、和草地水道分别使流域内的泥沙产量减少了 73%、66%、65%、58%、54% 和 48%。我们得出结论，就斯瓦特河而言，沉积盆地是气候变化下土壤侵蚀管理的最经济选择。