This study aims to explore possible distributional changes in annual daily maximum rainfalls (ADMRs) over South Korea using a Bayesian multiple non-crossing quantile regression model. The distributional changes in the ADMRs are grouped into nine categories, focusing on changes in the location and scale parameters of the probability distribution. We identified seven categories for a distributional change in the selected stations. Most of the stations (28 of 50) are classified as Category III, which is characterized by an upward trend with an increase in variance in the distribution. Moreover, stations with a downward trend with a decrease in the variance pattern (Category VII) are mainly distributed on the southern Korean coast. On the other hand, Category I stations are mostly located in eastern Korea and primarily show a statistically significant upward trend with a decrease in variance. Moreover, this study explored changes in design rainfall estimates for different categories in terms of distributional changes. For Categories I, II, III, and VI, a noticeable increase in design rainfall was observed, while Categories IV, V, and VII showed no evidence of association with risk of increased extreme rainfall.

中文翻译：

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极端降雨的变化及其对使用贝叶斯分位数回归方法的设计降雨的影响

本研究旨在使用贝叶斯多元非交叉分位数回归模型探索韩国年日最大降雨量 (ADMR) 的可能分布变化。ADMR 的分布变化分为九类，重点关注概率分布的位置和尺度参数的变化。我们为所选站点的分布变化确定了七个类别。大多数站点（50 个中的 28 个）被归类为 III 类，其特征是呈上升趋势，分布方差增加。此外，具有下降趋势且方差模式减小（类别 VII）的站点主要分布在韩国南部沿海。另一方面，第一类站点大多位于韩国东部，主要呈现统计上显着的上升趋势，方差减小。此外，本研究探讨了不同类别的设计降雨估计在分布变化方面的变化。对于 I、II、III 和 VI 类，观察到设计降雨量显着增加，而 IV、V 和 VII 类显示没有证据表明与极端降雨量增加的风险相关。