Populations of scoter and loon species that winter in the Atlantic are understudied in North America, but coastal observatories may provide the data required to fill some of the knowledge gaps. The migration of scoters and loons has been monitored at the Point Lepreau Bird Observatory (PLBO) in the Bay of Fundy every spring since 1996, but little peer‐reviewed research based on the resultant database has been published. Using data collected over 18 years at the Bay of Fundy (2000–2017), our objectives were to (1) determine the most accurate method of modeling hourly migration rates for Surf (Melanitta perspicillata), White‐winged (M. deglandi), and Black (M. americana) scoters, and Red‐throated (Gavia stellata) and Common (G. immer) loons, and (2) assess trends in hourly migration rates for our five focal species to determine if the numbers of migrants passing PLBO have changed over time. We calculated hourly migration rates for each of our five focal species and evaluated drivers (i.e., timing and environmental conditions) of migration and annual trends using zero‐inflated generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). We found that drivers of migration differed among species. Specifically, hourly migration rates decreased with increasing tide height for all species except Red‐throated Loons. In addition, hourly migration rates increased with increasing wind vector (i.e., a tailwind) for the three scoter species, but decreased with increasing wind vector for the two loon species. Scoter migration rates peaked daily between 11:00 and 13:00 UTC, but we found no daily peak for either loon species. Peak hourly migration rates of Black and Surf scoters occurred from 12 to 26 April, but migration rates of White‐winged Scoters and both loon species continued to increase throughout our migration‐monitoring window. Finally, we found no changes in hourly migration rates over time for any of our focal species, suggesting no changes in abundance over the 18 years of data collection. Our study reveals the importance and utility of long‐term, coastal observation stations, and we recommend their continued funding and use as valuable sources of monitoring data.

中文翻译：

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模拟芬迪湾春季苏格兰人和懒人的春季迁移模式

在北美，对大西洋冬季滑行和懒人物种的种群研究不足，但沿海天文台可能提供填补某些知识空白所需的数据。自1996年以来，芬迪湾的Point Lepreau鸟天文台（PLBO）一直监测着苏格兰人和懒人的迁徙，但基于结果数据库的同行评审研究很少发表。使用在芬迪湾（2000-2017）收集的超过18年的数据，我们的目标是：（1）确定模拟每小时迁移率冲浪的最准确的方法（斑脸perspicillata），白翅（中号。 deglandi）和黑色（中号。 美洲）scoters，和红喉（Gavia stellata）和Common（G .  immer））懒人，以及（2）评估我们五个主要物种的每小时迁移率趋势，以确定通过PLBO的移民数量是否随时间变化。我们计算了五个主要物种的每小时迁徙率，并使用零膨胀广义线性混合模型（GLMM）评估了迁徙的驱动因素（即时间和环境条件）和年度趋势。我们发现，物种迁移的驱动因素有所不同。特别是，除红喉龙以外，所有物种的每小时迁徙速率都随着潮汐高度的增加而降低。另外，三个滑行物种的每小时迁徙率随风向（即顺风）的增加而增加，但随两个懒人物种随风向的增加而减小。滑行车迁移率每天在世界标准时间11:00至13:00之间达到峰值，但是我们发现这两种懒人都没有每日高峰。在4月12日至26日，Black和Surf苏格兰人的高峰每小时迁徙率出现了，但是在我们的移民监测窗口中，White-wing苏格兰人和两个懒人的迁徙率一直在增加。最后，我们发现任何重点物种的小时迁移率均未随时间变化，这表明在收集数据的18年中，丰度没有变化。我们的研究揭示了长期沿海观测站的重要性和实用性，我们建议继续提供资金并将其用作监测数据的宝贵来源。我们发现任何重点物种的小时迁移率均未随时间变化，这表明在过去18年的数据收集中，丰度没有变化。我们的研究揭示了长期沿海观测站的重要性和实用性，我们建议继续提供资金并将其用作监测数据的宝贵来源。我们发现任何重点物种的小时迁移率均未随时间变化，这表明在过去18年的数据收集中，丰度没有变化。我们的研究揭示了长期沿海观测站的重要性和实用性，我们建议继续提供资金并将其用作监测数据的宝贵来源。