Lipid abnormality pervasively is associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. To the best of our knowledge, there is no study that has examined the longitudinal changes in a wide range of serum lipid profiles in prediabetic subjects in association with the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus in the future. This study aimed to identify the patterns of changes in lipid profiles over time in prediabetic patients and to classify these subjects in order to highlight which patients are at high risk for future diabetes. This prospective 16-year (2003–2019) cohort study was conducted among 1228 prediabetic subjects. The study subjects were followed, and the changes in their lipid profiles, including triglycerides, cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, were evaluated. The latent Markov model was used for data analysis. The mean (standard deviation) age of subjects was 44.0 (6.8) years, and 73.6% of them were female. The latent Markov model identified two latent states of subjects in terms of changes in lipid profiles: a low tendency to progress diabetes / high tendency to progress diabetes (74, 26%). The latent Markov model showed that the transition probability from a “low tendency to progress diabetic” state to a “high tendency to progress diabetic” state was lower than the transition probability from “high tendency to progress diabetic” state to “low tendency to progress diabetic” state. The present study showed that more than half of the first-degree relatives of T2DM had approximately normal lipid profiles and that these patients are more inclined to transition from a higher- to a lower-tendency diabetic state. These findings confirm the value of regular screening of first-degree relatives of T2DM. Moreover, preventive intervention strategies are recommended to reduce their risk of developing T2DM.

中文翻译：

---

糖尿病前期受试者血脂谱变化的模式：一项对2型糖尿病患者一级亲属的16年前瞻性队列研究的结果。

血脂异常普遍与2型糖尿病的风险有关。据我们所知，目前尚无研究检查糖尿病前期受试者广泛的血脂谱的纵向变化与将来患2型糖尿病的风险。这项研究旨在确定糖尿病前期患者体内脂质谱随时间变化的模式，并对这些受试者进行分类，以突出显示哪些患者将来患糖尿病的风险较高。这项前瞻性16年（2003-2019年）队列研究在1228名糖尿病前期受试者中进行。跟踪研究对象，并评估其脂质分布的变化，包括甘油三酸酯，胆固醇，高密度脂蛋白胆固醇和低密度脂蛋白胆固醇。潜在的马尔可夫模型用于数据分析。受试者的平均年龄（标准差）为44.0（6.8）岁，其中73.6％为女性。潜在的马尔可夫模型根据脂质分布的变化确定了受试者的两种潜在状态：发展为糖尿病的低趋势/发展为糖尿病的高趋势（74，26％）。潜在的马尔可夫模型表明，从“糖尿病低发展趋势”到“糖尿病高发展趋势”的转变概率低于从“糖尿病高发展”状态向“低发展趋势”的转变概率。糖尿病”状态。本研究表明，一半以上的T2DM一级亲属具有近似正常的血脂水平，并且这些患者更倾向于从高糖尿病状态过渡到低糖尿病状态。这些发现证实了定期筛查T2DM一级亲属的价值。此外，建议采取预防性干预策略以降低其患上T2DM的风险。