Abstract The design of effective strategies for the conservation and management of threatened narrow-range species requires basic knowledge on their geographic distribution and abundance. When such knowledge is lacking, modelling techniques can provide an opportunity to acquire basic information and incorporate it immediately into conservation programs. This study used ecological niche modelling to map the potential distribution range and rangewide variation in population abundance of a threatened narrow-range endemic plant, Antirrhinum lopesianum Rothm. in the Iberian Peninsula. We simulated the potential geographic distribution of the species using the Ensemble Modelling approach based on 28 species occurrences and a set of readily available environmental data (Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and LiDAR) and created a spatial model of the distance to the niche centroid. We tested the relationships between 35 records with abundance data for the species and their distance to the niche centroid using generalized regression models, and the resulting model was used to predict spatial estimations of A. lopesianum abundance across its entire potential distribution range. The ecological niche model of A. lopesianum covered the most suitable areas located along a narrow strip on the banks of the River Duero and River Sabor. We found a robust and negative relationship between observed abundance for the taxon and distance to the niche centroid. The spatially explicit model presented here provides a reliable tool for regional/global management and conservation of A. lopesianum and an approach applicable for other narrow-range endemic plants. Finally, this approach maximization the exploitation of basic information through open resources (software and environmental variables), which makes it of high interest for institutions with limited resources.

中文翻译：

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充分利用稀缺数据：绘制受威胁的窄范围特有植物的分布范围和种群丰度变化

摘要 保护和管理濒危物种的有效策略的设计需要对其地理分布和数量的基本了解。当缺乏此类知识时，建模技术可以提供获取基本信息并将其立即纳入保护计划的机会。本研究使用生态位模型来绘制受威胁的窄范围特有植物 Antirrhinum lopesianum Rothm 的潜在分布范围和种群丰度的范围变化。在伊比利亚半岛。我们使用基于 28 个物种出现和一组现成环境数据（Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS 和 LiDAR）的集成建模方法模拟了物种的潜在地理分布，并创建了到生态位质心距离的空间模型。我们使用广义回归模型测试了具有该物种丰度数据的 35 条记录与其与生态位质心的距离之间的关系，所得模型用于预测 A. lopesianum 丰度在其整个潜在分布范围内的空间估计。A. lopesianum 的生态位模型覆盖了位于杜埃罗河和萨博尔河岸边狭窄地带的最适宜区域。我们发现观察到的分类群丰度与到生态位质心的距离之间存在强大的负相关关系。此处介绍的空间明确模型为 A. lopesianum 的区域/全球管理和保护提供了可靠的工具，并提供了适用于其他窄范围特有植物的方法。最后，这种方法通过开放资源（软件和环境变量）最大限度地利用基础信息，这使得资源有限的机构对其感兴趣。