Cataract is one of the major morbidities in the U.S. population and it has long been appreciated that high and acutely delivered radiation doses of 1 Gy or more can induce cataract. Some more recent studies, in particular those of the U.S. Radiologic Technologists, have suggested that cataract may be induced by much lower, chronically delivered doses of ionizing radiation. It is well recognized that dosimetric measurement error can substantially alter the shape of the radiation dose-response relationship and thus, the derived study risk estimates, and can also inflate the variance of the estimates. In the current study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainties in eye-lens absorbed doses on the estimated risk of cataract in the U.S. Radiologic Technologists' Monte Carlo Dosimetry System, using both absolute and relative risk models. Among 11,345 cases we show that the inflation in the standard error for the excess relative risk (ERR) is generally modest, at most approximately 20% of the unadjusted standard error, depending on the model used for the baseline risk. The largest adjustment results from use of relative risk models, so that the ERR/Gy and its 95% confidence intervals change from 1.085 (0.645, 1.525) to 1.085 (0.558, 1.612) after adjustment. However, the inflation in the standard error of the excess absolute risk (EAR) coefficient is generally minimal, at most approximately 0.04% of the standard error.

白内障是美国人口的主要疾病之一，人们很早就认识到，1 Gy 或更高的高、急性辐射剂量可诱发白内障。最近的一些研究，特别是美国放射技术专家的研究表明，白内障可能是由低得多的长期照射剂量的电离辐射引起的。众所周知，剂量测量误差可以显着改变辐射剂量-反应关系的形状，从而改变导出的研究风险估计，并且还可以夸大估计的方差。在当前的研究中，我们使用绝对和相对风险模型评估了美国放射技术专家蒙特卡罗剂量测定系统中眼晶状体吸收剂量的不确定性对白内障估计风险的影响。在 11,345 个案例中，我们发现超额相对风险 (ERR) 的标准误差膨胀程度一般较小，最多约为未调整标准误差的 20%，具体取决于用于基线风险的模型。最大的调整是由于使用了相对风险模型，调整后ERR/Gy及其95%置信区间从1.085（0.645，1.525）变为1.085（0.558，1.612）。然而，超额绝对风险 (EAR) 系数的标准误差的膨胀通常很小，最多约为标准误差的 0.04%。