Hurricanes in the southeast United States are infrequent disturbances that affect large areas and have a large effect on forest succession. In order to understand and quantify this effect, we added a new module to the LANDIS-II landscape change model. Focusing on the southeast coast of the United States, we simulated stochastic hurricanes for 50 years. For each simulated storm, the new model extension generates the maximum sustained wind speed over the region and uses the resulting parameter surface to compute maximum sustained wind speed for each cohort cell in a raster grid. Mortality is estimated for each species and age cohort in each cell based on the maximum sustained wind speed, altering forest succession. Results indicate that hurricanes reduce average aboveground biomass by > 20% over 50 years on a landscape in Fort Bragg, North Carolina (USA) compared to a scenario without hurricanes and increased uncertainty of projected succession.

美国东南部的飓风是罕见的干扰，影响大片区域，并对森林演替产生很大影响。为了理解和量化这种影响，我们向LANDIS-II景观变化模型添加了一个新模块。着眼于美国东南沿海，我们模拟了50年的随机飓风。对于每个模拟风暴，新的模型扩展都将生成该区域内的最大持续风速，并使用生成的参数面来计算栅格网格中每个同类单元的最大持续风速。根据最大持续风速，改变森林演替，估算每个单元中每个物种和同龄群的死亡率。结果表明，飓风在50年内使布拉格堡的景观平均地上生物量减少了20％以上，