This paper presents an original system dynamics model, which aims to assess how changes in diet, agricultural practices, bioenergy and forestry could help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We demonstrate that changes in types and quantities of food consumed and reductions in food wastes along with sustainable bioenergy and forestry dynamics would materially assist the EU in meeting its 2050 climate mitigation obligations. We find that overall rates of EU-28 greenhouse gas emissions are highly sensitive to the food trade balance, both within and outside the EU. Land use itself is often under-represented as a major option for carbon mitigation in policy strategies, but our results show that it must become a central component aligned with energy system decarbonization if material levels of warming mitigation are to be achieved.

本文提出了一个原始的系统动力学模型，旨在评估饮食，农业实践，生物能源和林业的变化如何有助于减少温室气体排放。我们证明，所食用食物的类型和数量的变化以及食物垃圾的减少以及可持续的生物能源和林业动态将在实质上帮助欧盟履行其2050年减缓气候变化的义务。我们发现，EU-28温室气体的总体排放率对欧盟内外的食品贸易平衡高度敏感。在政策策略中，土地使用本身通常不是减少碳排放的主要选择，但是我们的结果表明，如果要实现减缓温室气体排放的物质水平，土地使用必须成为与能源系统脱碳一致的重要组成部分。