Abstract New Zealand is well known as the “land of birds” with 168 extant native breeding species within an area of 270,000 km2. About 40 endemic avian species have gone extinct since human arrival 700 years ago, and a high proportion of the remaining ones are currently threatened with extinction. Here, we compile a retrospective assessment of the extinction risk of New Zealand's endemic birds from the 1980s to the present date using global and national information. We projected trends in extinction risk of species during the last four decades as well as trends for species with different life-history characteristics using the Red List Index (RLI). Overall, the RLI of New Zealand endemic birds has decreased from 0.83 in the 1980s to 0.68 in the 2010s, indicating a higher risk of extinction today than 40 years ago. The conservation status of 23 species (64%) deteriorated throughout the study period. We found that flightless and large species are more likely to have a decline in conservation status compared to volant and small species. Ground-nesting birds and those with long incubation times also face higher extinction risk compared to species nesting above 1 m height and short incubation periods. Species classified as habitat specialists and inhabiting water systems showed a more rapid increase in extinction risk than non-specialist species or those inhabiting forests. Our retrospective assessment can help conservationists to identify the characteristics that make endemic birds more likely to face a higher risk of extinction. Integrating historical conservation assessments and species' traits with extinction risk will improve our ability to manage and protect endangered species.

中文翻译：

---

新西兰特有鸟类灭绝风险的驱动因素和趋势

摘要 新西兰是众所周知的“鸟类之乡”，在 270,000 平方公里的面积内有 168 种现存的本土繁殖物种。自700年前人类到来以来，大约有40种地方性鸟类已经灭绝，而剩余的鸟类中很大一部分目前正面临灭绝的威胁。在这里，我们使用全球和国家信息对 1980 年代至今新西兰特有鸟类的灭绝风险进行了回顾性评估。我们使用红色名录指数 (RLI) 预测了过去四年中物种灭绝风险的趋势以及具有不同生活史特征的物种的趋势。总体而言，新西兰特有鸟类的 RLI 从 1980 年代的 0.83 下降到 2010 年代的 0.68，表明今天的灭绝风险高于 40 年前。在整个研究期间，23 个物种 (64%) 的保护状况恶化。我们发现，与自由和小型物种相比，不会飞的大型物种更有可能在保护状况方面有所下降。与筑巢高度超过 1 m 且潜伏期短的物种相比，地面筑巢的鸟类和潜伏期长的鸟类也面临更高的灭绝风险。与非专业物种或栖息在森林中的物种相比，被归类为栖息地专家和栖息水系统的物种在灭绝风险方面的增长速度更快。我们的回顾性评估可以帮助保护主义者确定使地方性鸟类更有可能面临更高灭绝风险的特征。整合历史保护评估和物种