Abstract The assessment of the impact of climate change on Mediterranean crop systems is affected by a large number of uncertainties. To overcome this issue in an impact and adaptation assessment for tree crops, an experimental dataset containing 556 phenological observations was used to calibrate and validate a modelling framework based on the Dynamic Model and ASYMCUR approach, for assessing the flowering date of common Mediterranean almond cultivars. Data were collected over 12 years for 15 almond cultivars in 5 locations in Andalusia (Southern Spain), covering a wide range of weather conditions. The model performance was good: for late-flowering cultivars Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 3.6 days and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) was 0.89, while for early-flowering cultivars RMSE was 3.4 days and NSE was 0.83. Weather projections from an ensemble of 12 climate model outputs including 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used with the modelling framework for each almond cultivar to quantify the changes in flowering date and the associated weather conditions during this stage, under the future weather conditions of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Thus, in future scenarios, depending on location, start of full bloom was delayed (in mild-winter areas) or advanced (in cold-winter areas), with the change in weather conditions during critical phenological stages potentially affecting the yield in different ways, depicting a high spatial variability in the projections within the IP. For this reason, a spatial analysis was applied to demarcate those areas with adverse weather conditions related to flowering stage. In light of our results it is concluded that the identification of impacts and adaptation strategies for Mediterranean agriculture requires a careful prior evaluation of the systems at local scale, due to the marked spatial heterogeneity and the remaining high uncertainties associated with the crop modelling.

中文翻译：

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物候学在树木作物的气候变化影响和适应策略中的作用：以南欧杏仁园为例

摘要 气候变化对地中海作物系统影响的评估受到大量不确定因素的影响。为了在对树木作物的影响和适应评估中克服这个问题，使用包含 556 个物候观测的实验数据集来校准和验证基于动态模型和 ASYMCUR 方法的建模框架，以评估常见的地中海杏仁品种的开花日期。在 12 年内收集了安达卢西亚（西班牙南部）5 个地点的 15 个杏仁品种的数据，涵盖了广泛的天气条件。模型性能良好：晚花品种的均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 3.6 天，Nash-Sutcliffe 模型效率 (NSE) 为 0.89，而早花品种的均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 3.4 天，NSE 为 0.83。来自包括 3 个代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 在内的 12 个气候模型输出集合的天气预测与每个杏仁品种的建模框架一起使用，以量化此阶段开花日期和相关天气条件的变化，在未来的天气条件下伊比利亚半岛 (IP)。因此，在未来的情景中，取决于位置，盛开的开始被推迟（在温和的冬季地区）或提前（在寒冷的冬季地区），关键物候阶段的天气条件变化可能会以不同的方式影响产量，描绘了 IP 内投影的高空间可变性。出于这个原因，应用空间分析来划分那些与开花期相关的恶劣天气条件的区域。