The profitability of investments in photovoltaics (PVs) and batteries in private households depends on the market price of electricity, which in turn is affected by the investments made in and the usage of PVs and batteries. This creates a feedback mechanism between the centralised electricity generation system, and household investments in PVs and batteries. To investigate this feedback effect, we connect a local optimisation model for household investments with a European power generation dispatch model. The local optimisation is based on the consumption profiles measured for 2104 Swedish households. The modelling compares three different scenarios for the centralised electricity supply system in Year 2032, as well as several sensitivity cases. Our results show total investment levels of 5–20 GWp of PV and 0.01–10 GWh of battery storage capacity in Swedish households in the investigated cases. These levels are up to 33% lower than before market feedback is taken into account. The profitability of PV investments is affected most by the price of electricity and the assumptions made regarding grid tariffs and taxes. The value of investments in batteries depends on both the benefits of increased self-consumption of PV electricity and market arbitrage.

中文翻译：

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电力市场反馈对瑞典独户住宅太阳能光伏和电池系统投资的影响

私人家庭光伏（PV）和电池投资的盈利能力取决于电力的市场价格，而电力市场价格又受到光伏和电池的投资和使用的影响。这在集中发电系统与家庭对光伏和电池的投资之间建立了反馈机制。为了研究这种反馈效应，我们将家庭投资的局部优化模型与欧洲发电调度模型联系起来。本地优化基于为 2104 个瑞典家庭测量的消费概况。该模型比较了 2032 年集中供电系统的三种不同情景，以及几种敏感情况。我们的结果显示总投资水平为 5-20 GWp 的 PV 和 0。调查案例中瑞典家庭的电池存储容量为 01-10 GWh。这些水平比考虑市场反馈之前低了 33%。光伏投资的盈利能力受电价和对电网关税和税收的假设影响最大。电池投资的价值取决于光伏电力自用增加的收益和市场套利。