Scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are key for decision-makers to understand the consequences of future environmental change on BES. Though a major driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss, land use and land cover changes (LUCC) have been largely overlooked in previous BES assessments. But ecologists lack practical guidance for the general use of LUCC projections. We review the practices in use in LUCC-driven BES assessments and summarize the questions ecologists should address before using LUCC projections. LUCC-driven BES scenarios rely on a substantial set of different socioeconomic storylines (> 200 for 166 papers). Studies explore different futures, but generally concentrate on projections obtained from a single LUCC model. The rationale regarding time horizon, spatial resolution, or the set of storylines used is rarely made explicit. This huge heterogeneity and low transparency regarding the what, why, and how of using LUCC projections for the study of BES futures could discourage researchers from engaging in the design of such biodiversity scenarios. Our results call on those using LUCC projections to more systematically report on the choices they make when designing LUCC-based BES scenarios (e.g. time horizon, spatial and thematic resolutions, scope of contrasted futures). Beyond the improvement of reliability, reproducibility, and comparability of these scenarios, this could also greatly benefit others wanting to use the same LUCC projections, and help land use modellers better meet the needs of their intended audiences. The uncertainties in LUCC-driven BES futures should also be explored more comprehensively, including different socioeconomic storylines and different LUCC models, as recommended in studies dealing with climate-driven BES futures.

中文翻译：

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生态学家在使用土地利用/覆盖变化预测进行生物多样性和生态系统服务评估之前应了解什么

生物多样性和生态系统服务（BES）的方案对于决策者了解未来环境变化对BES的影响至关重要。尽管是造成地球生物多样性丧失的主要因素，但在以前的BES评估中，土地使用和土地覆盖变化（LUCC）却被大大忽略了。但是，生态学家缺乏对LUCC预测的一般使用的实用指导。我们回顾了LUCC驱动的BES评估中使用的实践，并总结了生态学家在使用LUCC预测之前应解决的问题。LUCC驱动的BES场景依赖于大量不同的社会经济故事情节（166篇论文大于200）。研究探索了不同的未来，但通常集中于从单个LUCC模型获得的预测。有关时间范围，空间分辨率，或很少使用明确的故事情节。关于使用LUCC预测用于BES期货的研究内容，原因和方式的巨大异质性和低透明度可能会阻止研究人员参与此类生物多样性情景的设计。我们的结果呼吁那些使用LUCC预测的人更系统地报告他们在设计基于LUCC的BES方案时所做出的选择（例如时间范围，空间和主题分辨率，对比期货的范围）。除了改善这些方案的可靠性，可重复性和可比性之外，这还可能使其他希望使用相同LUCC预测的人受益匪浅，并帮助土地使用建模人员更好地满足其目标受众的需求。LUCC驱动的BES期货的不确定性也应该更全面地探索，