ABSTRACT: In Australian waters, southern right whales Eubalaena australis form 2 genetically distinct populations that have shown contrasting patterns of recovery since whaling ceased: a western population in South Australia and Western Australia and an eastern population in southeastern Australia (Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales). Here, we provide an abundance estimate derived from a breeding female superpopulation mark-recapture model for the southeastern southern right whale population. The population comprises 268 individuals (68 breeding females) and has increased at a rate of 4.7% per annum between 1996 and 2017. There has been no significant change in the annual abundance of mother-calf pairs sighted at the only calving ground (Logans Beach in Victoria) over the last 3 decades. The total number of southern right whales (i.e. all adults and calves) using the southeastern Australian coastline has increased by 7% since 1985. Unlike the population estimate (which was restricted to breeding females sighted prior to the post-breeding southward migration), this estimate is likely to include transiting whales from the southwestern population. The theoretical population model predicts 19 breeding females at Logans Beach in 2018 and 28 in 2028; the actual number of breeding females, as of 2018, is 14. This study provides the first complete estimate of population size and rate of increase of southern right whales along the southeastern Australian coastline. This knowledge is critical for assessing population status and recovery of southern right whales in Australia. It provides a basis for monitoring persistence and responses of the population to environmental stressors.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚东南部南部露脊鲸Eubalaena australis的种群估计和增长率

摘要：在澳大利亚水域中，南方右鲸Eubalaena australis自捕鲸停止以来，有2种遗传上不同的种群呈现出相反的恢复模式：南澳大利亚和西澳大利亚的西部种群和澳大利亚东南部的东部种群（塔斯马尼亚，维多利亚和新南威尔士州）。在这里，我们提供了一个东南东南露脊鲸种群的繁殖雌性超种群标记捕获模型的丰度估计。人口包括268人（68位育种的女性），并且在1996年至2017年期间以每年4.7％的速度增长。在唯一的产犊场（洛根海滩）发现的母小牛对的年丰度没有显着变化。在过去的30年中）。南方右鲸的总数（即 自1985年以来，使用澳大利亚东南部海岸线的所有成年牛和犊牛的数量均增加了7％。与人口估计（仅限于繁殖后向南迁徙之前见到的雌性成年雌性）不同，该估计可能包括来自美洲的过境鲸鱼。西南人口。理论上的种群模型预测，洛根斯海滩的19个育种雌性将于2018年繁殖，2028年将达到28个。截至2018年，实际繁殖的雌性数量为14。该研究首次完整估计了澳大利亚东南沿海沿线的南方鲸的种群数量和增长率。这些知识对于评估澳大利亚南部鲸的种群状况和恢复至关重要。它为监测人口对环境压力的持久性和反应提供了基础。