ABSTRACT: The ever-increasing human demand for fossil fuels has resulted in the expansion of oil exploration efforts to waters over the continental shelf. These waters are largely utilized by a complex biological community. Large baleen whales, in particular, utilize continental shelf waters as breeding and calving grounds, foraging grounds, and also as migration corridors. We developed a dynamic approach to estimate the likelihood that individuals from different populations of blue whales Balaenoptera musculus and humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae could be exposed to idealized, simulated seismic surveys as they move over the continental shelf. Animal tracking data for the different populations were filtered, and behaviors (transit and foraging) were inferred from the tracks using hidden Markov models. We simulated a range of conditions of exposure by having the source of noise affecting a circular area of different radii (5, 25, 50 and 100 km), moving along a gridded transect of 270 and 2500 km² at a constant speed of 9 km h^-1, and starting the simulated surveys every week of the year. Our approach allowed us to identify the temporal variability in the susceptibility of the different populations under study, as we ran the simulations for an entire year, allowing us to identify periods when the surveys would have an intensified effect on whales. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the behavior and ecology of individuals in a site-specific context when considering the likelihood of exposure to anthropogenic disturbances, as the habitat utilization patterns of each population are highly variable.

中文翻译：

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一种动态方法来估计海洋掠食者暴露于大陆架水域的石油勘探地震勘测的可能性

摘要：人类对化石燃料的需求不断增长，导致石油勘探工作扩展到了大陆架上的水域。这些水主要被复杂的生物群落利用。尤其是大型的鲸鱼，利用大陆架水作为繁殖和产犊场，觅食场以及迁徙走廊。我们开发了一个动态的方法来估计的可能性，从蓝鲸的不同人群个体鲸家鼠和驼背鲸学名Megaptera novaeangliae当它们在大陆架上移动时，可能会暴露于理想的模拟地震勘测中。筛选出不同种群的动物追踪数据，并使用隐马尔可夫模型从追踪中推断行为（中转和觅食）。我们通过使噪声源影响不同半径的圆形区域（5、25、50和100 km），以270 km和2500 km ²的网格横断面以9 km的恒定速度移动，来模拟一系列暴露条件h ^-1，并在一年中的每个星期开始进行模拟调查。当我们进行全年模拟时，我们的方法使我们能够确定所研究的不同种群的易感性随时间的变化，从而使我们能够确定调查对鲸鱼的影响增强的时期。我们的结果强调了在考虑暴露于人为干扰的可能性时，了解特定地点环境中个体的行为和生态的重要性，因为每个人口的栖息地利用模式差异很大。