This study examines the empirical importance of the effects of the risk environment on the impacts of climate change on farm land allocations and consequent effect on agricultural output in Zambia. We use a discrete-choice model consistent with a mean-variance utility function to model farm-level land allocations among alternative crops. Results indicate that risk-reducing decisions reinforce the trend to shift away from maize production in response to climate change impacts on mean temperatures and precipitation. The opportunity cost of these decisions is explored through a simulation scenario in which yield variability is reduced to zero. Important conclusions can be derived from this analysis. First, when the economic effects of climate change are considered, decision-making under uncertainty and risk should be at the forefront of the problems that issues that need to be addressed. Second, concentrating on farm-level effects of responses to climate change is not sufficient. To understand the economy wide consequences of climate change, the aggregate effects of individual decisions should be assessed. Third, results indicate that increased efforts in risk management and in policies aiming at reducing risk can lead to significant positive outcomes. Acknowledgement : This work was supported by a grant from the Bureau of Food Security at the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). This work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit donors. The authors take sole responsibility for the opinions expressed within this study.

中文翻译：

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风险在气候变化、土地利用选择和作物生产背景下的作用：来自赞比亚的证据

本研究考察了风险环境对气候变化对赞比亚农田分配的影响及其对农业产出的影响的实证重要性。我们使用与均值方差效用函数一致的离散选择模型来模拟替代作物之间的农场级土地分配。结果表明，为应对气候变化对平均温度和降水的影响，降低风险的决定加强了从玉米生产转移的趋势。这些决策的机会成本是通过一个模拟场景来探索的，在这个场景中，产量可变性减少到零。从这个分析中可以得出重要的结论。首先，当考虑气候变化的经济影响时，不确定性和风险下的决策应该处于需要解决的问题的最前沿。其次，仅仅关注应对气候变化的农场层面的影响是不够的。要了解气候变化对经济的广泛影响，应评估个人决策的总体影响。第三，结果表明，在风险管理和旨在降低风险的政策方面加大努力可以带来显着的积极成果。致谢：这项工作得到了美国国际开发署 (USAID) 粮食安全局的资助。这项工作是作为 CGIAR 气候变化、农业和粮食安全研究计划 (CCAFS) 的一部分实施的，这是在 CGIAR 基金捐助者的支持下并通过双边资助协议进行的。详情请访问捐助者。作者对本研究中表达的意见承担全部责任。