ABSTRACT: Variation in the amount and intensity of precipitation is one of the most important factors determining how biological systems respond to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, given the importance of climate projections for influencing (inter)national policy, there is a pressing need to contextualise contemporary projections with observed trends to better inform environmental strategy and planning. In this study we examine trends from one of the longest paired time series of upland (>300m) and lowland precipitation records (1879 – 2012), and shorter-term observations (1961 – 2015) from multiple upland locations in South West (SW) England (Dartmoor National Park). In the period 1879 – 2012, total precipitation in the upland site increased by more than 10% for spring, autumn, winter, and annually; for the lowland site, only spring experienced a significant increase (8%) in precipitation. Increases in autumn, winter and annual precipitation were recorded at upland sites since the 1960s. We compare observed precipitation trends with the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18) for the region across two timeframes (60 and 90 years). Changes in the 30 year average between reference (1981 – 2010) and observed and projected precipitation totals were compared and deviations calculated. Comparisons between model projections and observed trends show large deviation for spring, summer and autumn precipitation in the mid to late 21st century, with the deviation greatest in upland localities. Winter projections however, were broadly consistent with observed trends. Results suggest uncertainties in future precipitation change are greatest in the uplands where the impacts on ecosystem services are the largest.

中文翻译：

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站在更高的地方：预测和观察到的降水趋势之间的偏差随高度而变化

摘要：降水量和强度的变化是决定生物系统如何响应人为气候变化的最重要因素之一。此外，鉴于气候预测对影响（国际）国家政策的重要性，迫切需要将当代预测与观察到的趋势联系起来，以更好地为环境战略和规划提供信息。在这项研究中，我们研究了最长的配对时间序列之一的高地 (>300m) 和低地降水记录 (1879 – 2012) 的趋势，以及来自西南 (SW) 多个高地位置的短期观测 (1961 – 2015) 的趋势英格兰（达特穆尔国家公园）。1879-2012年，山地地区春、秋、冬、年降水总量增加10%以上；对于低地站点，只有春季的降水量显着增加（8%）。自 1960 年代以来，高地地区的秋季、冬季和年降水量有所增加。我们将观测到的降水趋势与该地区在两个时间范围（60 年和 90 年）上的最新英国气候预测 (UKCP18) 进行比较。比较了参考（1981-2010 年）与观测和预测降水总量之间 30 年平均值的变化，并计算了偏差。模式预测与观测趋势对比表明，21世纪中后期春夏秋季降水偏差较大，其中高地地区偏差最大。然而，冬季预测与观察到的趋势大体一致。