ABSTRACT: This paper deals with the analysis of time trends for European average temperature anomalies for the period from 1655 to 2017 using a dataset based on the Central England Temperatures (CET) and other meteorological stations. The reason for this study is to determine first if long memory is present in the data, and then to estimate the time trends in a more rigorous way. The results indicate that the series display long memory behavior. Based on this and using recursive methods, we show that the time trend becomes statistically significant when the data from 2010 onwards is incorporated, indicating the importance of the last few years in the evidence for warming. It should be noted, however, that this last result may be a consequence of the statistical method employed and should, therefore, be treated with caution.

中文翻译：

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1655-2017年欧洲平均温度异常的时间趋势

摘要：本文使用基于英格兰中部温度（CET）和其他气象站的数据集，对1655年至2017年期间欧洲平均温度异常的时间趋势进行了分析。进行这项研究的原因是，首先确定数据中是否存在长存储，然后以更严格的方式估计时间趋势。结果表明该系列显示长记忆行为。基于此并使用递归方法，我们显示，当纳入2010年以后的数据时，时间趋势在统计上变得很显着，这表明了最近几年对于变暖证据的重要性。但是，应注意的是，最后的结果可能是所采用的统计方法的结果，因此应谨慎对待。