ABSTRACT: Reviewing the results of environmental epidemiology, post-volcanic climatology, and environmental history, we focused exclusively on volcanic eruption-ENSO and ENSO-cholera connections in order to establish a hypothesis that large tropical and Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions trigger an environmentally driven cascade process via post-volcanic ENSO anomalies. This cascade process has tended historically to lead to cholera outbreaks in Bengal (i.e. the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta region of modern India and Bangladesh). To test our hypothesis, we set up a dataset from strong tropical and Northern Hemisphere volcanic events that forced the ENSO system, ENSO indices, and historical data for cholera outbreaks. Eight volcanic eruptions (≥3.3 W m^-2) were accompanied within 2 yr by El Niño events over the past 500 yr. For the 19^th-20^th century period, all selected volcanic eruptions were accompanied by major cholera outbreaks in Bengal during the examined post-volcanic years. For the past 500 yr, the likelihood of the occurrence of major post-volcanic cholera outbreaks was 75%.

中文翻译：

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火山爆发可能引发霍乱疫情

摘要：回顾了环境流行病学，火山后气候学和环境历史的结果，我们仅关注火山爆发-ENSO和ENSO-霍乱的联系，以建立一个假设，即热带和北半球的大型火山爆发会触发环境驱动的级联通过火山后ENSO异常的过程。从历史上看，这种级联过程往往导致孟加拉国爆发霍乱疫情（即现代印度和孟加拉国的恒河-布拉马普特拉三角洲地区）。为了检验我们的假设，我们建立了一个强烈的热带和北半球火山事件的数据集，这些事件迫使ENSO系统，ENSO指数和霍乱暴发的历史数据出现。八次火山喷发（≥3.3W m ^-2）在过去的500年中，伴随着2年之内的厄尔尼诺事件。对于19^日-20^日世纪期间，所有选择的火山喷发是在检票后火山年伴随孟加拉主要霍乱暴发。在过去的500年中，发生重大火山后霍乱暴发的可能性为75％。