ABSTRACT: Hydroelectric sources are a major contributor to power generation in Brazil. The constant evaluation of climate change impacts is relevant for guiding Brazilian energy policy. This research presents a methodological framework composed of the calibration of a hydrological model and verification of a climate model in the ‘present’ climate (1961-1990), in addition to future scenarios (2011-2100) of precipitation and streamflow for 4 hydroelectric plants in Brazil. For future projections, data from the Eta regional climate model (20 km horizontal resolution) nested within the HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 global climate models were used. Monthly linear bias correction was applied to the simulations. Future projections were based on IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The SMAP hydrological model was adopted on a monthly scale with the addition of a translation parameter that examines the level of dependence of the present streamflow on the previous month's streamflow. The climate and hydrological models satisfactorily capture the distribution of precipitation and streamflow in different Brazilian regions, and effectively represent seasonal variability. Future projections point to a reduction in rainfall and natural streamflow in central-northern Brazil and a slight increase in the southern region. These scenarios should be carefully considered and require constant improvement and research since there are uncertainties associated with atmospheric dynamics and the hydrological cycle.

中文翻译：

---

当前气候的降水和水流的数值模拟以及对巴西水力发电厂的流域的未来预测

摘要：水力发电是巴西发电的主要贡献者。不断评估气候变化影响与指导巴西能源政策有关。这项研究提出了一个方法框架，该框架包括水文模型的校准和“当前”气候（1961-1990年）中气候模型的验证，以及未来4个水电厂的降水和水流的未来情景（2011-2100年）在巴西。对于未来的预测，使用了嵌套在HadGEM2-ES和MIROC5全球气候模型中的Eta区域气候模型（水平分辨率20 km）的数据。将每月线性偏差校正应用于模拟。未来的预测基于IPCC RCP4.5和8.5方案。SMAP水文模型按月采用，并增加了转换参数，该参数可检查当前流量对上个月流量的依赖程度。气候和水文模型令人满意地记录了巴西不同地区的降水和流量分布，并有效地反映了季节变化。未来的预测表明，巴西中北部的降雨和自然流量将减少，南部地区将略有增加。由于存在与大气动力学和水文循环有关的不确定性，因此应仔细考虑这些情况，并需要不断进行改进和研究。气候和水文模型令人满意地记录了巴西不同地区的降水和流量分布，并有效地反映了季节变化。未来的预测表明，巴西中北部的降雨和自然流量将减少，南部地区将略有增加。由于存在与大气动力学和水文循环有关的不确定性，因此应仔细考虑这些情况并需要不断进行改进和研究。气候和水文模型令人满意地记录了巴西不同地区的降水和流量分布，并有效地反映了季节变化。未来的预测表明，巴西中北部的降雨和自然流量将减少，南部地区将略有增加。由于存在与大气动力学和水文循环有关的不确定性，因此应仔细考虑这些情况并需要不断进行改进和研究。