ABSTRACT: Within the context of analyzing daily heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing in the 21^st century, a new method considering non-stationarities in the relationships of large-scale circulation predictors and regional precipitation extremes was applied. The Mediterranean area was split into up to 22 precipitation regions, and analyses were performed separately for 3 different seasons (autumn, winter and spring) and 3 different quantiles (90^th, 95^th and 99^th). Estimations are based on a three-step censored quantile regression. Future estimations are performed by means of 3 model runs of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model with Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Overall, the Mediterranean is mainly characterized by decreasing quantile values. Especially in the regions in the southeast, declines are significant, with up to 71.7% (-1.65 mm) in the Levante region (autumn) and over 16 mm (-38.2%) on Crete (winter). Increased precipitation quantiles were only assessed for a more or less extended region in the northern parts of the Central Mediterranean (winter and spring), for the northeastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula (autumn) and for northern Spain (spring). Overall, analyses showed that non-stationarities seriously affect precipitation behavior in most parts of the Mediterranean. Results indicated that 2 different regimes (western and eastern) inducing non-stationarities are predominant in the Mediterranean area. In autumn (winter), the western (eastern) regime is limited to the Iberian Peninsula (Levante), whereas in spring, the area of influence of both regimes is of equal size.

中文翻译：

---

考虑预测因子与预测因子之间非平稳性的地中海地区未来极端降水的季节性评估

摘要：在分析下加强温室气体在21迫使地中海日常强降水事件的背景下^ST世纪，新的方法考虑的大尺度环流预测和地区极端降水的关系非stationarities应用。地中海地区被分成多达22个沉淀区域，并且分析是3个不同季节（秋，冬，弹簧）和3个不同的分位数（90分开进行^第95^次和99^次）。估计基于三步删失的分位数回归。未来的估计是通过Max Planck Institute低分辨率地球系统模型（MPI-ESM-LR）的3个模型运行进行的，用于代表浓度路径（RCP）4.5和8.5。总体而言，地中海的主要特点是分位数降低。特别是在东南部地区，下降幅度很大，在莱万特地区（秋季）高达71.7％（-1.65毫米），在克里特岛（冬季）超过16毫米（-38.2％）。仅在中地中海北部（冬季和春季），伊比利亚半岛东北海岸（秋季）和西班牙北部（春季）或多或少地对降水分位数进行了评估。总体，分析表明，非平稳性严重影响了地中海大部分地区的降水行为。结果表明，在地中海地区，主要有2种引起不平稳的机制（西方和东部）。在秋季（冬季），西部（东部）政权仅限于伊比利亚半岛（莱万特），而在春季，这两个政权的影响范围相同。