ABSTRACT: Projections of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula are investigated using a 7-ensemble mean of regional climate models obtained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Köppen-Geiger classification are analyzed for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected in the 2041-2070 period, with greater shifts occurring under RCP8.5. An overall increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types, dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of Iberia for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% by 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.5% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replace CSb (warm-summer climate) in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is particularly noticeable in Portugal, with the projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. The predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cfa) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards the Pyrenees region is noteworthy, as is the increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8 and 9%) in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot desert, respectively), non-existent in the 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of the territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase in steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.

中文翻译：

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柯本对伊比利亚半岛的气候分类预测

摘要：使用从EURO-CORDEX获得的7个区域气候模型的均值，研究了伊比利亚半岛未来气候变化下的柯本-盖革气候分类的预测。针对伊比利亚的RCP4.5和RCP8.5，分析了具有预测的未来温度，降水和Köppen-Geiger分类情景的地图。预计在2041-2070年期间，温度，降水和气候状况将发生广泛的统计上显着变化，在RCP8.5下会发生更大的变化。预计东南偏南总体温度升高和降水减少。在干旱（B）和温带（C）这两种气候类型中，主要气候是1961-1990年伊比利亚（86％）的碳，预计到2041-2070年在RCP4.5下将下降8.0％（在RCP8下为9.5％）。 .5）。地中海炎热的夏季气候（CSa）将逐步取代伊比利亚西北部的CSb（暖夏气候），直到2070年。SSIM指数所描绘的这种转变在葡萄牙尤为明显，因为预计CSa的建立2041-2070年的气候。值得注意的是，东北向比利牛斯地区的潮湿亚热带（Cfa）和温带海洋（Cfb）地区的退缩是值得注意的，沙漠地区（BW）和半沙漠（BS）气候的增加（7.8和9％）也值得注意。东南（格拉纳达和巴伦西亚之间）。预计1961-1990年不存在的气候类型BSh和BWh（分别为半沙漠热和沙漠热），在RCP4.5下，预计将占2041-2070年2.8％的领土（在RCP8下为5％）。 5）。