Abstract: This paper examines how rising temperatures due to climate change will affect electricity consumption patterns through mid- and end-century. We extend recent literature in two important ways. First, we directly incorporate adaptation in the form of increased air conditioner penetration, resulting in heightened responsiveness to hot temperatures. Second, we go beyond average effects to consider how higher temperatures will change the intraday and seasonal shape of consumption. This is found to be of greater importance in colder countries, where the average effect is dampened by reductions in heating demand from warmer winters. Seasonal peaks are projected to shift from winter to summer and the diurnal range of hourly consumption expands, exacerbating an increasing need for flexibility coming from the supply side due to a growing share of renewable energy.

中文翻译：

---

伸懒腰：温度升高将如何改变未来用电量的水平和形状

摘要：本文研究了由于气候变化导致的气温升高如何影响整个世纪中叶和末叶的用电量。我们以两种重要方式扩展了最近的文献。首先，我们以增加空调渗透率的形式直接引入适应性，从而提高了对高温的响应速度。其次，我们超出平均影响范围，考虑高温将如何改变日间和季节消费形态。在较冷的国家中发现这一点尤为重要，这些国家的平均效应因较温暖的冬季减少了供热需求而受到削弱。预计季节性高峰将从冬季转移到夏季，并且每小时消费的昼夜范围会扩大，