Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Regionally, the percentage of suitable days for burning changes little during winter but decreases substantially in summer owing to rising temperatures by the end of the 21st century compared with historical conditions. Management implications of such changes for six representative land management units include seasonal shifts in burning opportunities from summer to cool-season months, but with considerable regional variation. We contend that the practical constraints of rising temperatures on prescribed fire activities represent a significant future challenge and show that even meeting basic burn criteria (as defined today) will become increasingly difficult over time, which speaks to the need for adaptive management strategies to prepare for such changes.

中文翻译：

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预计气候变化将减少美国东南部规定的燃烧机会

规定的燃烧是管理野火风险和实现生态目标的重要工具，但其安全有效的应用需要满足特定的气象标准（“燃烧窗口”）。在这里，我们通过应用一套燃烧窗口标准来评估预计的气候变化对美国东南部规定的燃烧的潜在影响，这些标准可以捕捉温度、相对湿度和风速，以及来自两个温室下的全球气候模型集合的预测。气体排放情景。从区域来看，冬季适宜燃烧天数的百分比变化不大，但与历史条件相比，由于21世纪末气温升高，夏季显着下降。六个代表性土地管理单位的此类变化对管理的影响包括燃烧机会从夏季到凉爽季节的季节性变化，但具有相当大的区域差异。我们认为，规定的火灾活动温度升高的实际限制代表了未来的重大挑战，并表明即使满足基本的燃烧标准（如今天定义的）也会随着时间的推移变得越来越困难，这说明需要适应性管理策略来准备这样的变化。