This study considers the possible implementation of the operational short‐term forecasting, and analysis of earthquake occurrences using a real‐time hypocenter catalog of ongoing seismic activity, by reviewing case studies of the aftershocks of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake that occurred before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. First, the short‐term prediction of spatiotemporal activity is required in real time along with the background seismic activity over a wide region to obtain practical probabilities of large earthquakes; snapshots from the continuous forecasts during the Searles Valley and Ridgecrest earthquake sequence are included to monitor the growth and migration of seismic activity over time. We found that the area in and around the rupture zone in southern California had a very high background rate. Second, we need to evaluate whether a first strong earthquake may be the foreshock for a further large earthquake; the rupture region in southern California had one of the highest such probabilities. Third, short‐term probability forecast of early aftershocks are much desired despite the difficulties with data acquisition. The aftershock sequence of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley event was found to significantly increase the probability of a larger earthquake, as seen in the foreshock sequence of the 2016 MJMA 7.4 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake. Finally, detrending the temporal activity of all the aftershocks by stretching and shrinking the ordinary time scale according to the rate given by the Omori–Utsu formula or the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model, we observe the spatiotemporal occurrences in which seismicity patterns may be abnormal, such as relative quiescence, relative activation, or migrating activity. Such anomalies should be recorded and listed for the future evaluation of the probability of a possible precursor for a large aftershock or a new rupture nearby. An example of such anomalies in the aftershocks before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake is considered.

中文翻译：

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地震序列的统计监测和早期预测：2019年加利福尼亚州塞尔斯谷地震的个案研究

这项研究通过回顾发生在Mw之前的6.4 Searles Valley地震余震的案例研究，考虑了可能的实施业务短期预报以及使用正在进行的地震活动的实时震源目录分析地震发生的情况。 7.1里奇克莱斯特地震。首先，需要实时预测时空活动以及大范围的背景地震活动，以便获得大地震的实际概率。包括了在Searles谷和Ridgecrest地震序列中连续预报的快照，以监视地震活动随时间的增长和迁移。我们发现，加利福尼亚南部破裂带及其周围地区的背景本底率很高。第二，我们需要评估第一次强地震是否可能成为进一步大地震的前兆；加利福尼亚南部的破裂地区是此类可能性最高的地区之一。第三，尽管数据采集存在困难，但仍非常需要早期余震的短期概率预测。如日本2016年MJMA 7.4熊本地震的前震序列所示，发现6.4塞尔斯谷Mw事件的余震序列显着增加了发生更大地震的可能性。最后，根据大森-Utsu公式或流行型余震序列模型给出的速率，通过拉伸和缩小普通时间尺度来消除所有余震的时间活动，我们观察到地震活动模式可能异常的时空现象。 ，例如相对静止，相对激活或迁移活动。应对此类异常进行记录并列出，以用于将来评估附近发生大余震或新破裂的可能性。考虑了里奇克莱斯特7.1级地震前余震中此类异常的一个例子。