The development of exploratory wells is based on the interpretation of seismic readings by geotechnical field experts. Correlation wells, when they exist, are located very far, leading to large uncertainties and to different interpretations by different experts. Exploratory wells are expensive and risky endeavors, in particular deep wells with high-temperature and high-pressure conditions. Reaching reservoirs at record depths often requires challenging usual safety margins, which should be based on reliability analyses. In this paper, we present an empirical random kick model to combine the opinions of different specialists and the reliability analysis of casing subject to kick loads. The empirical kick model has a random kick volume and intensity, gas gravity, and influx depth. Three tubular strength models are considered: Barlow formula, von Mises stress, and Klever-Stewart model (Klever and Stewart 1998; Stewart and Klever 1998), with random yield stress and tube thickness. A typical 19,000 ft well is considered as a case study example, and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used as a probabilistic solver. Results show the differences between safety factors and reliability indices obtained for the three strength models. Sensitivity factors show that yield stress and model error are the most relevant random variable at shallow depths. Kick volume and influx depth are found to be the most relevant random variables of the kick model, especially at greater depths. The proposed empirical kick model is shown to have a significant impact on casing reliability, in comparison with a kick in which uncertain kick variables are assumed with uniform distribution.

探井的开发基于岩土工程领域专家对地震读数的解释。当相关井存在时，它们位于很远的地方，导致很大的不确定性，并导致不同专家的不同解释。探索性井是昂贵且冒险的工作，特别是在高温和高压条件下的深井。达到记录深度的储层通常需要挑战通常的安全裕度，这应基于可靠性分析。在本文中，我们提出了一个经验随机踢模型，该模型结合了不同专家的意见和承受踢载荷的套管的可靠性分析。经验踢模型具有任意踢体积和强度，瓦斯重力和涌入深度。考虑了三种管状强度模型：巴洛公式，von Mises应力和Klever-Stewart模型（Klever和Stewart 1998； Stewart和Klever 1998）具有随机屈服应力和管壁厚度。一个典型的19,000英尺井被认为是一个案例研究示例，而一阶可靠性方法（FORM）被用作概率求解器。结果表明，三种强度模型的安全系数和可靠性指标之间存在差异。敏感性因素表明，屈服应力和模型误差是浅层深度中最相关的随机变量。发现踢水量和涌入深度是踢水模型中最相关的随机变量，尤其是在更大深度处。结果表明，与假定具有均匀分布的不确定踢变量的踢相比，所提出的经验踢模型对套管的可靠性有重大影响。和Klever-Stewart模型（Klever和Stewart 1998； Stewart和Klever 1998），具有随机的屈服应力和管厚度。一个典型的19,000英尺井被认为是一个案例研究示例，而一阶可靠度方法（FORM）被用作概率求解器。结果表明，三种强度模型的安全系数和可靠性指标之间存在差异。敏感性因素表明，屈服应力和模型误差是浅层深度中最相关的随机变量。发现踢水量和涌入深度是踢水模型中最相关的随机变量，尤其是在更大深度处。结果表明，与假定具有均匀分布的不确定踢变量的踢相比，所提出的经验踢模型对套管的可靠性有重大影响。和Klever-Stewart模型（Klever和Stewart 1998； Stewart和Klever 1998），具有随机的屈服应力和管厚度。一个典型的19,000英尺的井被认为是一个案例研究示例，而一阶可靠性方法（FORM）被用作概率求解器。结果表明，三种强度模型的安全系数和可靠性指标之间存在差异。敏感性因素表明，屈服应力和模型误差是浅层深度中最相关的随机变量。发现踢水量和涌入深度是踢水模型中最相关的随机变量，尤其是在更大深度处。结果表明，与假定具有均匀分布的不确定的反冲变量的反冲相比，所提出的经验反冲模型对套管可靠性具有重大影响。