Climate change is expected to intensify the hydropower production in East Africa. This research investigates the runoff and energy production in the current and future climate for the Tekeze hydropower plant located in the Tekeze river basin in the northern part of Ethiopia. The rainfall-runoff model HBV and the hydropower simulator nMAG were used to generate runoff and energy production in the current and future climate. A combination of five regional climate models and seven global climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment were used to generate bias-corrected scenarios for the future climate. The result shows an increase in future runoff which was shown to be due to an increase in precipitation. However, the current operational strategy of the power plant did not utilize the future runoff in an optimal way. Therefore, based on the projected future inflow, we have developed a new reservoir operational strategy to preserve water for power production. As a result, the energy production was increased, and the flood spill from the reservoir reduced. This shows the need to adapt the hydropower production system to the future flow regimes to get the most out of the available water.

预计气候变化将加剧东非的水力发电。这项研究调查了埃塞俄比亚北部Tekeze流域的Tekeze水电厂在当前和未来气候下的径流和能源生产。降雨径流模型HBV和水力发电模拟器nMAG被用于在当前和未来气候下产生径流和能源生产。来自协调的区域气候缩减试验的五个区域气候模型和七个全球气候模型的组合，用于为未来气候生成经过偏差校正的方案。结果表明，未来径流增加，这是由于降水增加所致。但是，电厂的当前运行策略并未以最佳方式利用未来的径流。因此，根据预计的未来流入量，我们制定了一种新的水库运行策略，以保护电力生产用水。结果，增加了能源产量，并减少了水库的洪水溢出。这表明需要使水电生产系统适应未来的水流状况，以充分利用可用水。