Changes in the global climate are attributed to the levels of greenhouse gases. Thus, future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways – RCPs) have been developed to explore the impact of different climate policies on the world. The RCPs are essential tools for General Circulation Models (GCMs) to simulate future climate changes. Curves that associate Intensity, Duration and Frequency (IDF) are used in forecasts and are fundamental for the design of hydraulic projects and risk management. The objective of this study was to design IDF curves for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, using data from the HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2 and MIROC5 models. The Equidistance Quantile Matching Method was used to design the IDF curves. The simulated curves presented differences when related to the existing curve. The largest differences were for the MIROC5 (146% in RCP 8.5) and the smallest differences were for the CanESM2 (−20.83% for RCP 8.5). This result demonstrates that the method incorporates changes in future climate variability. The spatial resolutions of each model influenced their IDF curves, which led the CanESM2 curves to not present satisfactory results that are different from the MIROC5 curves, which were the ones that best represented the possible future differences.

全球气候的变化归因于温室气体的水平。因此，已经开发了未来情景（代表性浓度途径-RCP）来探索不同气候政策对世界的影响。RCP是通用循环模型（GCM）用来模拟未来气候变化的基本工具。关联强度，持续时间和频率（IDF）的曲线用于预测，并且是水力项目设计和风险管理的基础。这项研究的目的是使用HadGEM2-ES，CanESM2和MIROC5模型的数据设计RCP 4.5和8.5的IDF曲线。等距分位数匹配方法用于设计IDF曲线。当与现有曲线相关时，模拟曲线呈现出差异。差异最大的是MIROC5（RCP 8中为146％）。5），而最小的差异是针对CanESM2（RCP 8.5为−20.83％）。该结果表明，该方法结合了未来气候变异性的变化。每个模型的空间分辨率都会影响其IDF曲线，这导致CanESM2曲线无法提供与MIROC5曲线不同的令人满意的结果，而MIROC5曲线最能代表未来可能的差异。