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Waste load allocation under uncertainty using game theory approach and simulation-optimization process
Journal of Hydroinformatics ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-01 , DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2020.181
Behnam Andik 1 , Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan 1
Affiliation  

This article aims to present a new methodology for waste load allocation (WLA) in a riverine system considering the uncertainty and achieve the lowest amount of inequity index, cost, and fuzzy risk of standard violation. To find a surface of undominated solutions, a new modified PAWN method, initially designed for sensitivity analysis, was developed and coupled with a simulation-optimization process using multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm, to consider the uncertainty of all affecting variables and parameters by using their probability distribution. The proposed methodology applied to Sefidrood River in the northern part of Iran. Graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) as a subset of game theory was implemented to attain a compromise on WLA among the stakeholders of a river system's quality in Iran: Department of Environment, Municipal Waste Water, and Private Sector. Some undominated solutions were used in GMCR model and modeling the conflict among decision makers reveals that their preferences and the status quo do not lead to a solely stable equilibrium; thus the intervention of a ruler as arbitrator leads them to reach a compromise on a scenario that has a median FRVS and cost. Sensitivity analysis was done using the PAWN method to assess the sensitivity of three intended objectives to all variables and parameters.



中文翻译:

不确定性下的废物负荷分配的博弈论与模拟优化过程

本文旨在提出一种考虑不确定性的河流系统中废物负荷分配(WLA)的新方法,并实现不平等指数,成本和标准违规风险的最小化。为了找到不确定解决方案的表面,开发了一种新的改进的PAWN方法,该方法最初设计用于灵敏度分析,并结合了使用多目标粒子群优化(MOPSO)算法的模拟优化过程,以考虑所有影响变量的不确定性和参数通过使用它们的概率分布。拟议的方法适用于伊朗北部的塞菲德罗德河。为了解决伊朗河流系统质量的利益相关者之间在WLA方面的折衷,实施了作为博弈论子集的解决冲突(GMCR)图形模型:环境,市政废水和私人部门。在GMCR模型中使用了一些不受控制的解决方案,对决策者之间的冲突进行建模表明,他们的偏好和现状并不会导致完全稳定的均衡。因此,标尺作为仲裁员的干预导致他们在FRVS和成本中位数的情况下达成妥协。使用PAWN方法进行了敏感性分析,以评估三个预期目标对所有变量和参数的敏感性。因此,标尺作为仲裁员的干预导致他们在FRVS和成本中位数的情况下达成妥协。使用PAWN方法进行了敏感性分析,以评估三个预期目标对所有变量和参数的敏感性。因此,标尺作为仲裁员的干预导致他们在FRVS和成本中位数的情况下达成妥协。使用PAWN方法进行了敏感性分析,以评估三个预期目标对所有变量和参数的敏感性。

更新日期:2020-08-20
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