A core-based fracture prediction method is used to illustrate a value-of-information (VOI) decision-analysis protocol to inform completion decisions in tight gas sandstones. The ratio of late host-rock cement to available pore volume (PV), or degradation index, uses petrographic observations of cement distributions in core (including sidewall cores) to predict whether nearby but unsampled fractures (widths > 0.5 to 1 mm) are sealed (nonconductive) or open (conductive). Measurements from four sandstone plays suggest that the index correctly predicts open vs. sealed fractures with an accuracy in excess of 80%. The value added is calculated using Bayesian inference in which the accuracy of the index serves as the likelihood of the prior distribution of open fractures to assess the posterior probability that data represent a useful predictor of producibility. VOI of the prediction method is more than three times the cost to acquire the data. VOI is most sensitive to play-specific geologic and cost parameters including cost to drill, expected revenue from a successful well, cost of completion, cost of acquiring data for the index, and fracture probability distributions. The approach provides a way to value acquiring fracture data and points to a need for zone-specific production data in tight gas sandstones.

基于岩心的裂缝预测方法用于说明信息价值（VOI）决策分析协议，以告知致密气砂岩完井决策。晚主体岩石水泥与有效孔隙体积（PV）或降解指数的比率，通过岩心观察岩心（包括侧壁岩心）中的水泥分布来预测附近但未取样的裂缝（宽度> 0.5至1 mm）是否被封闭（不导电）或开路（导电）。从四个砂岩矿床的测量结果表明，该指数可正确预测开放裂缝和密闭裂缝，准确率超过80％。使用贝叶斯推断计算增加的​​值，其中索引的准确性用作先行分布开放性骨折的可能性，以评估数据代表可生产性预测值的后验概率。预测方法的VOI是获取数据成本的三倍以上。VOI对特定于钻井的地质和成本参数最为敏感，这些参数包括钻探成本，成功钻井的预期收入，完井成本，获取指标数据的成本以及裂缝概率分布。该方法提供了一种价值获取裂缝数据的方法，并指出了致密气砂岩中特定区域生产数据的需求。VOI对特定于钻井的地质和成本参数最为敏感，这些参数包括钻探成本，成功钻井的预期收入，完井成本，获取指标数据的成本以及裂缝概率分布。该方法提供了一种获取裂缝数据的价值的方法，并指出了致密气砂岩中针对特定区域的生产数据的需求。VOI对特定于钻井的地质和成本参数最为敏感，包括钻探成本，成功钻井的预期收入，完井成本，获取指标数据的成本以及裂缝概率分布。该方法提供了一种获取裂缝数据的价值的方法，并指出了致密气砂岩中特定区域生产数据的需求。